Recent U.S. economic releases and institutional forecasts have created a tight contest between the 2.0–2.5% and >2.5% bands for 2026 real GDP growth. Solid Q2 expansion of 2.2% annualized, resilient consumer spending, and surging business fixed investment—particularly in AI infrastructure and data centers—support the higher outcome, while sticky inflation near 3.4%, elevated oil prices, and the prospect of further Federal Reserve tightening cap upside. The FOMC’s September median projection of 2.3% and private forecasts clustered between 2.1% and 2.7% underscore the narrow range. Key swing factors include the upcoming Q3 GDP print, October–December consumption and capex data, and any shift in monetary-policy expectations that could alter the growth-inflation trade-off before year-end.