The July 2026 employment report, showing nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000 with the unemployment rate easing to 4.1% amid a sharp drop in labor force participation to 61.4%, forms the key driver behind the tight clustering of Polymarket-implied probabilities around 4.1–4.3% for August. Professional forecasters project the rate holding near 4.2–4.3% on average through year-end, reflecting modest hiring, subdued labor supply trends, and a balanced market despite slower job gains in sectors like government and leisure. Recent initial claims data rising to 209,000 and upcoming August CPI and September FOMC decisions represent primary swing factors that could shift consensus on whether the rate stabilizes or edges higher before the September 4 release.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於4.1% 32%
4.2% 31%
4.3% 25%
4.0% 12%
$13,417 交易量
$13,417 交易量
2026-09-04
≤3.8%
<1%
3.9%
5%
4.0%
12%
4.1%
32%
4.2%
31%
4.3%
25%
4.4%
2%
4.5%
2%
≥4.6%
4%
4.1% 32%
4.2% 31%
4.3% 25%
4.0% 12%
$13,417 交易量
$13,417 交易量
2026-09-04
≤3.8%
$323 交易量
<1%
3.9%
$424 交易量
5%
4.0%
$1,517 交易量
12%
4.1%
$4,322 交易量
32%
4.2%
$2,636 交易量
31%
4.3%
$2,857 交易量
25%
4.4%
$568 交易量
2%
4.5%
$380 交易量
2%
≥4.6%
$389 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The July 2026 employment report, showing nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000 with the unemployment rate easing to 4.1% amid a sharp drop in labor force participation to 61.4%, forms the key driver behind the tight clustering of Polymarket-implied probabilities around 4.1–4.3% for August. Professional forecasters project the rate holding near 4.2–4.3% on average through year-end, reflecting modest hiring, subdued labor supply trends, and a balanced market despite slower job gains in sectors like government and leisure. Recent initial claims data rising to 209,000 and upcoming August CPI and September FOMC decisions represent primary swing factors that could shift consensus on whether the rate stabilizes or edges higher before the September 4 release.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
市場開放時間： Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET
交易量
$13,417結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The July 2026 employment report, showing nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000 with the unemployment rate easing to 4.1% amid a sharp drop in labor force participation to 61.4%, forms the key driver behind the tight clustering of Polymarket-implied probabilities around 4.1–4.3% for August. Professional forecasters project the rate holding near 4.2–4.3% on average through year-end, reflecting modest hiring, subdued labor supply trends, and a balanced market despite slower job gains in sectors like government and leisure. Recent initial claims data rising to 209,000 and upcoming August CPI and September FOMC decisions represent primary swing factors that could shift consensus on whether the rate stabilizes or edges higher before the September 4 release.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
交易量
$13,417結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETThe July 2026 employment report, showing nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000 with the unemployment rate easing to 4.1% amid a sharp drop in labor force participation to 61.4%, forms the key driver behind the tight clustering of Polymarket-implied probabilities around 4.1–4.3% for August. Professional forecasters project the rate holding near 4.2–4.3% on average through year-end, reflecting modest hiring, subdued labor supply trends, and a balanced market despite slower job gains in sectors like government and leisure. Recent initial claims data rising to 209,000 and upcoming August CPI and September FOMC decisions represent primary swing factors that could shift consensus on whether the rate stabilizes or edges higher before the September 4 release.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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