Recent weakness in the U.S. labor market, highlighted by the July nonfarm payrolls report showing a 23,000-job decline and sizable downward revisions to prior months, has created broad uncertainty around August hiring. ADP private payrolls also slowed to just 44,000, while the unemployment rate held near 4.1 percent amid falling labor force participation. Traders appear divided on whether this signals a sustained cooldown—potentially pressuring the Federal Reserve toward easier policy—or a temporary dip ahead of seasonal factors and any fiscal shifts. With no single outcome exceeding 34 percent implied probability, the spread across 0–150k ranges reflects competing views on momentum, upcoming data like claims and PMI releases, and how quickly conditions may stabilize.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5萬 – 10萬 34%
0 – 5萬 29%
100k – 150k 28%
150k+ 18%
最新
最新
2026-09-05
<-50k
9%
-50k – 0
8%
0 – 5萬
29%
5萬 – 10萬
34%
100k – 150k
28%
150k+
24%
5萬 – 10萬 34%
0 – 5萬 29%
100k – 150k 28%
150k+ 18%
最新
最新
2026-09-05
<-50k
$130 交易量
9%
-50k – 0
$187 交易量
8%
0 – 5萬
$7,477 交易量
29%
5萬 – 10萬
$147 交易量
34%
100k – 150k
$119 交易量
28%
150k+
$166 交易量
24%
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRecent weakness in the U.S. labor market, highlighted by the July nonfarm payrolls report showing a 23,000-job decline and sizable downward revisions to prior months, has created broad uncertainty around August hiring. ADP private payrolls also slowed to just 44,000, while the unemployment rate held near 4.1 percent amid falling labor force participation. Traders appear divided on whether this signals a sustained cooldown—potentially pressuring the Federal Reserve toward easier policy—or a temporary dip ahead of seasonal factors and any fiscal shifts. With no single outcome exceeding 34 percent implied probability, the spread across 0–150k ranges reflects competing views on momentum, upcoming data like claims and PMI releases, and how quickly conditions may stabilize.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
市場開放時間： Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET
交易量
$8,226結束日期
2026-09-05市場開放時間
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRecent weakness in the U.S. labor market, highlighted by the July nonfarm payrolls report showing a 23,000-job decline and sizable downward revisions to prior months, has created broad uncertainty around August hiring. ADP private payrolls also slowed to just 44,000, while the unemployment rate held near 4.1 percent amid falling labor force participation. Traders appear divided on whether this signals a sustained cooldown—potentially pressuring the Federal Reserve toward easier policy—or a temporary dip ahead of seasonal factors and any fiscal shifts. With no single outcome exceeding 34 percent implied probability, the spread across 0–150k ranges reflects competing views on momentum, upcoming data like claims and PMI releases, and how quickly conditions may stabilize.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
交易量
$8,226結束日期
2026-09-05市場開放時間
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETRecent weakness in the U.S. labor market, highlighted by the July nonfarm payrolls report showing a 23,000-job decline and sizable downward revisions to prior months, has created broad uncertainty around August hiring. ADP private payrolls also slowed to just 44,000, while the unemployment rate held near 4.1 percent amid falling labor force participation. Traders appear divided on whether this signals a sustained cooldown—potentially pressuring the Federal Reserve toward easier policy—or a temporary dip ahead of seasonal factors and any fiscal shifts. With no single outcome exceeding 34 percent implied probability, the spread across 0–150k ranges reflects competing views on momentum, upcoming data like claims and PMI releases, and how quickly conditions may stabilize.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions