The U.S. labor market’s recent stabilization at a 4.3 percent unemployment rate through April 2026, paired with only 115,000 nonfarm payroll gains that month, has anchored trader sentiment around modest further increases through year-end. Slowing hiring, a shrinking labor force, and reduced net migration are limiting job creation while keeping the rate from rising sharply, consistent with the Federal Reserve’s March median projection of 4.4 percent for 2026 and the Philadelphia Fed survey’s 4.5 percent forecast. Persistent core inflation near 2.7 percent has prompted the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent, with the next policy decision and updated economic projections due at the June 16–17 meeting. Upcoming May employment data, due early June, and second-quarter GDP figures will provide the clearest near-term signals on whether the current low-hire equilibrium persists or gives way to faster unemployment gains.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$388,681 交易量
2026-01-10
5.0%
28%
5.5%
14%
6.0%
13%
7.0%
10%
10.0%
4%
$388,681 交易量
5.0%
$102,277 交易量
28%
5.5%
$186,719 交易量
14%
6.0%
$52,180 交易量
13%
7.0%
$21,510 交易量
10%
10.0%
$25,994 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The U.S. labor market’s recent stabilization at a 4.3 percent unemployment rate through April 2026, paired with only 115,000 nonfarm payroll gains that month, has anchored trader sentiment around modest further increases through year-end. Slowing hiring, a shrinking labor force, and reduced net migration are limiting job creation while keeping the rate from rising sharply, consistent with the Federal Reserve’s March median projection of 4.4 percent for 2026 and the Philadelphia Fed survey’s 4.5 percent forecast. Persistent core inflation near 2.7 percent has prompted the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent, with the next policy decision and updated economic projections due at the June 16–17 meeting. Upcoming May employment data, due early June, and second-quarter GDP figures will provide the clearest near-term signals on whether the current low-hire equilibrium persists or gives way to faster unemployment gains.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
市場開放時間： Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
交易量
$388,681結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The U.S. labor market’s recent stabilization at a 4.3 percent unemployment rate through April 2026, paired with only 115,000 nonfarm payroll gains that month, has anchored trader sentiment around modest further increases through year-end. Slowing hiring, a shrinking labor force, and reduced net migration are limiting job creation while keeping the rate from rising sharply, consistent with the Federal Reserve’s March median projection of 4.4 percent for 2026 and the Philadelphia Fed survey’s 4.5 percent forecast. Persistent core inflation near 2.7 percent has prompted the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent, with the next policy decision and updated economic projections due at the June 16–17 meeting. Upcoming May employment data, due early June, and second-quarter GDP figures will provide the clearest near-term signals on whether the current low-hire equilibrium persists or gives way to faster unemployment gains.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
交易量
$388,681結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. labor market’s recent stabilization at a 4.3 percent unemployment rate through April 2026, paired with only 115,000 nonfarm payroll gains that month, has anchored trader sentiment around modest further increases through year-end. Slowing hiring, a shrinking labor force, and reduced net migration are limiting job creation while keeping the rate from rising sharply, consistent with the Federal Reserve’s March median projection of 4.4 percent for 2026 and the Philadelphia Fed survey’s 4.5 percent forecast. Persistent core inflation near 2.7 percent has prompted the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent, with the next policy decision and updated economic projections due at the June 16–17 meeting. Upcoming May employment data, due early June, and second-quarter GDP figures will provide the clearest near-term signals on whether the current low-hire equilibrium persists or gives way to faster unemployment gains.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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