Canada’s unemployment rate stood at 6.9 percent in April 2026, marking a six-month high yet remaining far below the pandemic peak above 14 percent recorded in 2020—the highest level since 2016. Recent labor-force data reflect modest job losses concentrated in full-time roles amid U.S. tariff uncertainty and slower hiring, but participation rates have risen without triggering sustained upward pressure on the jobless rate. Traders assign a 91 percent implied probability to the “no” outcome because current levels and consensus forecasts for 2026 point to stabilization near 6.5–7.0 percent rather than a return to double-digit territory. A sharp escalation in trade tensions or an abrupt recession could still push the rate higher, though such scenarios would require significantly worse conditions than those priced into current economic releases.