Recent UK CPI data showing a June 2026 annual rate of 2.6%—the lowest since early 2025—has supported the leading 2.5–2.9% band for the calendar-year average, yet Bank of England projections and market-implied odds near 20% for 3.5–3.9% reflect offsetting pressures from elevated global energy prices tied to Middle East developments. Higher wholesale gas costs are feeding through via the July Ofgem price cap and fuel prices, with the MPC holding Bank Rate at 3.75% while flagging risks of a rebound to around 3.5% by year-end before any subsequent moderation. A loosening labor market and moderating core services inflation provide counterbalance, but persistent uncertainty over energy pass-through, wage responses, and second-round effects keeps the 2.5–2.9% and 3.5–3.9% outcomes closely matched as traders weigh the durability of the recent disinflation path.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2.5–2.9% 23.4%
3.5–3.9% 20.5%
4.0-4.4% 11%
4.5%以上 8%
$55,358 交易量
$55,358 交易量
低於1.0%
<1%
1.0–1.4%
4%
1.5–1.9%
2%
2.0–2.4%
6%
2.5–2.9%
23%
3.0–3.4%
-
3.5–3.9%
20%
4.0-4.4%
11%
4.5%以上
8%
2.5–2.9% 23.4%
3.5–3.9% 20.5%
4.0-4.4% 11%
4.5%以上 8%
$55,358 交易量
$55,358 交易量
低於1.0%
<1%
1.0–1.4%
4%
1.5–1.9%
2%
2.0–2.4%
6%
2.5–2.9%
23%
3.0–3.4%
-
3.5–3.9%
20%
4.0-4.4%
11%
4.5%以上
8%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
市場開放時間: Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent UK CPI data showing a June 2026 annual rate of 2.6%—the lowest since early 2025—has supported the leading 2.5–2.9% band for the calendar-year average, yet Bank of England projections and market-implied odds near 20% for 3.5–3.9% reflect offsetting pressures from elevated global energy prices tied to Middle East developments. Higher wholesale gas costs are feeding through via the July Ofgem price cap and fuel prices, with the MPC holding Bank Rate at 3.75% while flagging risks of a rebound to around 3.5% by year-end before any subsequent moderation. A loosening labor market and moderating core services inflation provide counterbalance, but persistent uncertainty over energy pass-through, wage responses, and second-round effects keeps the 2.5–2.9% and 3.5–3.9% outcomes closely matched as traders weigh the durability of the recent disinflation path.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於



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