**Recent developments have tilted trader consensus toward holding the Bank of Russia key rate steady at its current 14% level through the December 2026 meeting.** After a series of 25 bp cuts that brought the rate down from 14.5% in July, the central bank paused easing at its September 11 meeting. It cited a significant pickup in price pressures, with underlying inflation accelerating to a 5–6% annualized pace amid temporary production-capacity constraints in some sectors and a surge in motor-fuel prices that is feeding through to broader goods and services. Annual inflation stood near 6.2–6.3% in mid-September—well above the 4% target—while household and business inflation expectations remained elevated. Fiscal developments add to the caution. Russia’s budget deficit is now projected at 3% of GDP for 2026, higher than earlier plans, reflecting increased spending and revenue dynamics. The Finance Ministry has signaled coordination with the central bank, but the Bank of Russia has repeatedly noted that a more expansionary fiscal stance could require a higher-for-longer policy rate to return inflation sustainably to target. Official forecasts anticipate 6.0–7.0% inflation for the full year 2026 before a return to 4% in 2027, with the average key rate for 2026 expected around 14.5–14.6%. Against this backdrop, the wisdom-of-crowds pricing shows the highest probability (41%) on no change in December, followed by smaller probabilities on modest cuts. The market reflects uncertainty over whether the recent inflation reacceleration proves temporary or persistent, the pace of any further disinflation, and the balance of domestic demand and external risks heading into year-end. Upcoming data releases and the October 23 meeting will provide further signals on whether conditions allow renewed easing.