Recent September 2026 core PCE data at 3.1% year-over-year, up from 3.0% in August with a 0.3% month-over-month rise, combined with Q3 GDP expanding at a stronger-than-expected 3.4% annualized rate, anchors trader expectations for the October print around 3.2%. Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, resilient consumer spending, and the central bank’s recent hold on the federal funds rate at 3.75–4.00% reinforce this positioning, as markets price limited near-term disinflation. The November 10 CPI release and November 25 PCE report represent key swing catalysts that could shift implied probabilities if goods or services components moderate more than anticipated.