Recent CPI prints at 3.1% for March 2026, following a 3.0% February reading, anchor trader expectations near the South African Reserve Bank’s 3% target amid stable food prices and subdued core measures. However, the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East has driven oil prices above $100 per barrel, introducing upside risks to imported energy and fertilizer costs that could push the full-year 2026 average toward or beyond 4%. With implied probabilities clustered tightly between the 2.9–3.2% band at 43.5% and outcomes above 5.0% at 41.3%, markets reflect uncertainty over whether geopolitical pressures will dominate or whether rand strength and lower global food prices will keep inflation contained within the target range. The next CPI release and any SARB communications on administered prices remain key near-term catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於低於2.6% 34.8%
4.4-4.7% 10.3%
3.2-3.5% 7.3%
3.5-3.8% 7.1%
$21,308 交易量
$21,308 交易量
低於2.6%
35%
2.6-2.9%
30%
2.9-3.2%
45%
3.2-3.5%
22%
3.5-3.8%
16%
3.8-4.1%
23%
4.1-4.4%
43%
4.4-4.7%
10%
4.7-5.0%
22%
>5.0%
38%
低於2.6% 34.8%
4.4-4.7% 10.3%
3.2-3.5% 7.3%
3.5-3.8% 7.1%
$21,308 交易量
$21,308 交易量
低於2.6%
35%
2.6-2.9%
30%
2.9-3.2%
45%
3.2-3.5%
22%
3.5-3.8%
16%
3.8-4.1%
23%
4.1-4.4%
43%
4.4-4.7%
10%
4.7-5.0%
22%
>5.0%
38%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
市場開放時間: Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent CPI prints at 3.1% for March 2026, following a 3.0% February reading, anchor trader expectations near the South African Reserve Bank’s 3% target amid stable food prices and subdued core measures. However, the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East has driven oil prices above $100 per barrel, introducing upside risks to imported energy and fertilizer costs that could push the full-year 2026 average toward or beyond 4%. With implied probabilities clustered tightly between the 2.9–3.2% band at 43.5% and outcomes above 5.0% at 41.3%, markets reflect uncertainty over whether geopolitical pressures will dominate or whether rand strength and lower global food prices will keep inflation contained within the target range. The next CPI release and any SARB communications on administered prices remain key near-term catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions