The 30-year Treasury yield stands near 5.25% as of early September 2026, after touching 5.34% in August—levels last seen in 2007—driven primarily by heavy federal debt issuance amid persistent budget deficits, resilient inflation pressures from energy and tariffs, and a strong economy fueled by AI and capital spending. The Federal Reserve, under Chair Kevin Warsh, has maintained a hawkish stance with rates held steady and September hike odds around 60%, supporting higher real yields and term premia. Market-implied paths reflect expectations for policy rates above 3% through 2028, while upcoming FOMC decisions and Treasury refundings remain key catalysts that could push yields toward or beyond recent peaks before year-end 2026.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
2026-12-30
6.00%
50%
5.80%
50%
5.70%
50%
5.65%
50%
5.60%
50%
5.55%
50%
5.50%
50%
5.45%
51%
5.40%
51%
$0.00 交易量
6.00%
$0 交易量
50%
5.80%
$0 交易量
50%
5.70%
$0 交易量
50%
5.65%
$0 交易量
50%
5.60%
$0 交易量
50%
5.55%
$0 交易量
50%
5.50%
$0 交易量
50%
5.45%
$0 交易量
51%
5.40%
$0 交易量
51%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 30-year Treasury yield stands near 5.25% as of early September 2026, after touching 5.34% in August—levels last seen in 2007—driven primarily by heavy federal debt issuance amid persistent budget deficits, resilient inflation pressures from energy and tariffs, and a strong economy fueled by AI and capital spending. The Federal Reserve, under Chair Kevin Warsh, has maintained a hawkish stance with rates held steady and September hike odds around 60%, supporting higher real yields and term premia. Market-implied paths reflect expectations for policy rates above 3% through 2028, while upcoming FOMC decisions and Treasury refundings remain key catalysts that could push yields toward or beyond recent peaks before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 30-year Treasury yield stands near 5.25% as of early September 2026, after touching 5.34% in August—levels last seen in 2007—driven primarily by heavy federal debt issuance amid persistent budget deficits, resilient inflation pressures from energy and tariffs, and a strong economy fueled by AI and capital spending. The Federal Reserve, under Chair Kevin Warsh, has maintained a hawkish stance with rates held steady and September hike odds around 60%, supporting higher real yields and term premia. Market-implied paths reflect expectations for policy rates above 3% through 2028, while upcoming FOMC decisions and Treasury refundings remain key catalysts that could push yields toward or beyond recent peaks before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETThe 30-year Treasury yield stands near 5.25% as of early September 2026, after touching 5.34% in August—levels last seen in 2007—driven primarily by heavy federal debt issuance amid persistent budget deficits, resilient inflation pressures from energy and tariffs, and a strong economy fueled by AI and capital spending. The Federal Reserve, under Chair Kevin Warsh, has maintained a hawkish stance with rates held steady and September hike odds around 60%, supporting higher real yields and term premia. Market-implied paths reflect expectations for policy rates above 3% through 2028, while upcoming FOMC decisions and Treasury refundings remain key catalysts that could push yields toward or beyond recent peaks before year-end 2026.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions