SpaceX's June 2026 IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation, raising approximately $75 billion, has anchored trader sentiment as the benchmark for the year's largest listing by market cap, though Anthropic's momentum reflects its Series H round closing at a $965 billion post-money valuation in May alongside run-rate revenue exceeding $47 billion. Investors are positioning Anthropic for an October debut targeting $2 trillion or higher, which would eclipse SpaceX if achieved, while xAI's February merger into SpaceX consolidates its exposure within the aerospace leader's trajectory. These implied probabilities capture the narrow contest between the two frontrunners amid a broader 2026 IPO surge, where forward-looking revenue multiples, filing timelines, and capital market appetite for AI and space assets continue to drive positioning ahead of potential resolution later in the year.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於SpaceX 55%
Anthropic 44.1%
OpenAI <1%
Discord <1%
$5,444,819 交易量
$5,444,819 交易量
2026-12-30
SpaceX
55%
Anthropic
44%
OpenAI
<1%
Discord
<1%
字節跳動
<1%
Stripe
<1%
Kraken
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
Waymo
<1%
Revolut
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
Databricks
<1%
SpaceX 55%
Anthropic 44.1%
OpenAI <1%
Discord <1%
$5,444,819 交易量
$5,444,819 交易量
2026-12-30
SpaceX
$749,256 交易量
55%
Anthropic
$792,121 交易量
44%
OpenAI
$477,793 交易量
<1%
Discord
$176,728 交易量
<1%
字節跳動
$213,392 交易量
<1%
Stripe
$129,177 交易量
<1%
Kraken
$655,963 交易量
<1%
SHEIN
$581,615 交易量
<1%
Waymo
$317,150 交易量
<1%
Revolut
$633,436 交易量
<1%
Perplexity AI
$104,136 交易量
<1%
Databricks
$614,055 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX's June 2026 IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation, raising approximately $75 billion, has anchored trader sentiment as the benchmark for the year's largest listing by market cap, though Anthropic's momentum reflects its Series H round closing at a $965 billion post-money valuation in May alongside run-rate revenue exceeding $47 billion. Investors are positioning Anthropic for an October debut targeting $2 trillion or higher, which would eclipse SpaceX if achieved, while xAI's February merger into SpaceX consolidates its exposure within the aerospace leader's trajectory. These implied probabilities capture the narrow contest between the two frontrunners amid a broader 2026 IPO surge, where forward-looking revenue multiples, filing timelines, and capital market appetite for AI and space assets continue to drive positioning ahead of potential resolution later in the year.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市場開放時間： Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
交易量
$5,444,819結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX's June 2026 IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation, raising approximately $75 billion, has anchored trader sentiment as the benchmark for the year's largest listing by market cap, though Anthropic's momentum reflects its Series H round closing at a $965 billion post-money valuation in May alongside run-rate revenue exceeding $47 billion. Investors are positioning Anthropic for an October debut targeting $2 trillion or higher, which would eclipse SpaceX if achieved, while xAI's February merger into SpaceX consolidates its exposure within the aerospace leader's trajectory. These implied probabilities capture the narrow contest between the two frontrunners amid a broader 2026 IPO surge, where forward-looking revenue multiples, filing timelines, and capital market appetite for AI and space assets continue to drive positioning ahead of potential resolution later in the year.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$5,444,819結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's June 2026 IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation, raising approximately $75 billion, has anchored trader sentiment as the benchmark for the year's largest listing by market cap, though Anthropic's momentum reflects its Series H round closing at a $965 billion post-money valuation in May alongside run-rate revenue exceeding $47 billion. Investors are positioning Anthropic for an October debut targeting $2 trillion or higher, which would eclipse SpaceX if achieved, while xAI's February merger into SpaceX consolidates its exposure within the aerospace leader's trajectory. These implied probabilities capture the narrow contest between the two frontrunners amid a broader 2026 IPO surge, where forward-looking revenue multiples, filing timelines, and capital market appetite for AI and space assets continue to drive positioning ahead of potential resolution later in the year.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions