SpaceX's completed June 2026 IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation, the largest on record with $75 billion raised, anchors trader consensus at 57% implied probability for the year's biggest debut by market cap. Anthropic's 41.6% odds reflect backers' expectations of an October listing potentially exceeding $2 trillion, supported by its May $965 billion private round, surging AI revenue run rates toward $100 billion annualized, and strong demand for Claude models. xAI's 25.5% reflects its earlier merger into SpaceX, folding its assets into the listed entity. Other candidates trail below 1% due to later timelines, smaller projected valuations, or regulatory hurdles, with upcoming catalysts including Anthropic's SEC review and any Q4 2026 AI funding rounds that could shift relative market caps.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於SpaceX 57%
Anthropic 41.6%
OpenAI <1%
Discord <1%
$5,428,986 交易量
$5,428,986 交易量
2026-12-31
SpaceX
57%
Anthropic
42%
OpenAI
<1%
Discord
<1%
字節跳動
<1%
Stripe
<1%
Kraken
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
Waymo
<1%
Revolut
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
Databricks
<1%
SpaceX 57%
Anthropic 41.6%
OpenAI <1%
Discord <1%
$5,428,986 交易量
$5,428,986 交易量
2026-12-31
SpaceX
$745,660 交易量
57%
Anthropic
$786,952 交易量
42%
OpenAI
$477,734 交易量
<1%
Discord
$176,728 交易量
<1%
字節跳動
$208,392 交易量
<1%
Stripe
$129,177 交易量
<1%
Kraken
$655,953 交易量
<1%
SHEIN
$581,615 交易量
<1%
Waymo
$316,150 交易量
<1%
Revolut
$633,436 交易量
<1%
Perplexity AI
$104,136 交易量
<1%
Databricks
$613,055 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX's completed June 2026 IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation, the largest on record with $75 billion raised, anchors trader consensus at 57% implied probability for the year's biggest debut by market cap. Anthropic's 41.6% odds reflect backers' expectations of an October listing potentially exceeding $2 trillion, supported by its May $965 billion private round, surging AI revenue run rates toward $100 billion annualized, and strong demand for Claude models. xAI's 25.5% reflects its earlier merger into SpaceX, folding its assets into the listed entity. Other candidates trail below 1% due to later timelines, smaller projected valuations, or regulatory hurdles, with upcoming catalysts including Anthropic's SEC review and any Q4 2026 AI funding rounds that could shift relative market caps.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市場開放時間： Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
交易量
$5,428,986結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX's completed June 2026 IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation, the largest on record with $75 billion raised, anchors trader consensus at 57% implied probability for the year's biggest debut by market cap. Anthropic's 41.6% odds reflect backers' expectations of an October listing potentially exceeding $2 trillion, supported by its May $965 billion private round, surging AI revenue run rates toward $100 billion annualized, and strong demand for Claude models. xAI's 25.5% reflects its earlier merger into SpaceX, folding its assets into the listed entity. Other candidates trail below 1% due to later timelines, smaller projected valuations, or regulatory hurdles, with upcoming catalysts including Anthropic's SEC review and any Q4 2026 AI funding rounds that could shift relative market caps.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$5,428,986結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's completed June 2026 IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation, the largest on record with $75 billion raised, anchors trader consensus at 57% implied probability for the year's biggest debut by market cap. Anthropic's 41.6% odds reflect backers' expectations of an October listing potentially exceeding $2 trillion, supported by its May $965 billion private round, surging AI revenue run rates toward $100 billion annualized, and strong demand for Claude models. xAI's 25.5% reflects its earlier merger into SpaceX, folding its assets into the listed entity. Other candidates trail below 1% due to later timelines, smaller projected valuations, or regulatory hurdles, with upcoming catalysts including Anthropic's SEC review and any Q4 2026 AI funding rounds that could shift relative market caps.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions