Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows five confirmed magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquakes through mid-May 2026, all along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones, following a multi-week lull with no further detections. This early pace aligns closely with the long-term annual average of roughly 16 such events, supporting trader consensus around the 14–16 bin at 30.5% implied probability. The closely matched 11–13 outcome at 26.5% reflects uncertainty from the inherent Poisson-like clustering of large quakes and the potential for continued quiescence on major faults through the remaining seven months. No elevated precursors appear in current USGS data, leaving resolution dependent on upcoming activity along subduction zones.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於14–16 31%
11–13 27%
17–19 21%
20+ 9.6%
$1,305,362 交易量
$1,305,362 交易量
2026-12-31
5–7
1%
8–10
9%
11–13
27%
14–16
31%
17–19
21%
20+
10%
14–16 31%
11–13 27%
17–19 21%
20+ 9.6%
$1,305,362 交易量
$1,305,362 交易量
2026-12-31
5–7
$70,120 交易量
1%
8–10
$129,563 交易量
9%
11–13
$410,453 交易量
27%
14–16
$183,952 交易量
31%
17–19
$206,159 交易量
21%
20+
$62,176 交易量
10%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows five confirmed magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquakes through mid-May 2026, all along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones, following a multi-week lull with no further detections. This early pace aligns closely with the long-term annual average of roughly 16 such events, supporting trader consensus around the 14–16 bin at 30.5% implied probability. The closely matched 11–13 outcome at 26.5% reflects uncertainty from the inherent Poisson-like clustering of large quakes and the potential for continued quiescence on major faults through the remaining seven months. No elevated precursors appear in current USGS data, leaving resolution dependent on upcoming activity along subduction zones.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
市場開放時間： Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
交易量
$1,305,362結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows five confirmed magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquakes through mid-May 2026, all along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones, following a multi-week lull with no further detections. This early pace aligns closely with the long-term annual average of roughly 16 such events, supporting trader consensus around the 14–16 bin at 30.5% implied probability. The closely matched 11–13 outcome at 26.5% reflects uncertainty from the inherent Poisson-like clustering of large quakes and the potential for continued quiescence on major faults through the remaining seven months. No elevated precursors appear in current USGS data, leaving resolution dependent on upcoming activity along subduction zones.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
交易量
$1,305,362結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows five confirmed magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquakes through mid-May 2026, all along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones, following a multi-week lull with no further detections. This early pace aligns closely with the long-term annual average of roughly 16 such events, supporting trader consensus around the 14–16 bin at 30.5% implied probability. The closely matched 11–13 outcome at 26.5% reflects uncertainty from the inherent Poisson-like clustering of large quakes and the potential for continued quiescence on major faults through the remaining seven months. No elevated precursors appear in current USGS data, leaving resolution dependent on upcoming activity along subduction zones.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions