Stringent resolution criteria—requiring a Category 5 U.S. landfall, VEI 6+ eruption, 8.5+ magnitude quake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—underpin the 79.5% market-implied probability for “No.” NOAA’s August 2026 Atlantic outlook projects a below-normal season with only 0–2 major hurricanes likely, while USGS records show recent events like the Colombia sequence topping out below threshold. Strengthening El Niño conditions favor drier patterns that suppress tropical cyclone intensification, and global volcanic and seismic monitoring networks report no signals of imminent qualification. Historical base rates confirm these thresholds are crossed infrequently, supporting trader consensus that the balance of 2026 is unlikely to meet any criterion.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
21% 機率
$240,662 交易量
$240,662 交易量
2026-12-31
是
21% 機率
$240,662 交易量
$240,662 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Stringent resolution criteria—requiring a Category 5 U.S. landfall, VEI 6+ eruption, 8.5+ magnitude quake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—underpin the 79.5% market-implied probability for “No.” NOAA’s August 2026 Atlantic outlook projects a below-normal season with only 0–2 major hurricanes likely, while USGS records show recent events like the Colombia sequence topping out below threshold. Strengthening El Niño conditions favor drier patterns that suppress tropical cyclone intensification, and global volcanic and seismic monitoring networks report no signals of imminent qualification. Historical base rates confirm these thresholds are crossed infrequently, supporting trader consensus that the balance of 2026 is unlikely to meet any criterion.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
市場開放時間： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
交易量
$240,662結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Stringent resolution criteria—requiring a Category 5 U.S. landfall, VEI 6+ eruption, 8.5+ magnitude quake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—underpin the 79.5% market-implied probability for “No.” NOAA’s August 2026 Atlantic outlook projects a below-normal season with only 0–2 major hurricanes likely, while USGS records show recent events like the Colombia sequence topping out below threshold. Strengthening El Niño conditions favor drier patterns that suppress tropical cyclone intensification, and global volcanic and seismic monitoring networks report no signals of imminent qualification. Historical base rates confirm these thresholds are crossed infrequently, supporting trader consensus that the balance of 2026 is unlikely to meet any criterion.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
交易量
$240,662結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Stringent resolution criteria—requiring a Category 5 U.S. landfall, VEI 6+ eruption, 8.5+ magnitude quake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—underpin the 79.5% market-implied probability for “No.” NOAA’s August 2026 Atlantic outlook projects a below-normal season with only 0–2 major hurricanes likely, while USGS records show recent events like the Colombia sequence topping out below threshold. Strengthening El Niño conditions favor drier patterns that suppress tropical cyclone intensification, and global volcanic and seismic monitoring networks report no signals of imminent qualification. Historical base rates confirm these thresholds are crossed infrequently, supporting trader consensus that the balance of 2026 is unlikely to meet any criterion.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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