The market-implied 36.5% chance of a 5kt meteor strike in 2026 stems primarily from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball database, which records an average of roughly one 5kt-scale airburst or ground impact per year globally. Most events occur over oceans or remote areas and register as bolides with peak energies around 5–20kt TNT equivalent, consistent with 1–10 meter objects entering at typical velocities. With no confirmed 5kt+ event recorded in the first four-plus months of 2026, traders have lowered the year-end probability from the long-term baseline near 50%. Upcoming CNEOS monthly updates and any new orbital detections could shift odds if an undetected object approaches, but the current distribution of small near-Earth objects supports the modest likelihood of resolution to Yes by December 31.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$300,653 交易量
$300,653 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$300,653 交易量
$300,653 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.The market-implied 36.5% chance of a 5kt meteor strike in 2026 stems primarily from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball database, which records an average of roughly one 5kt-scale airburst or ground impact per year globally. Most events occur over oceans or remote areas and register as bolides with peak energies around 5–20kt TNT equivalent, consistent with 1–10 meter objects entering at typical velocities. With no confirmed 5kt+ event recorded in the first four-plus months of 2026, traders have lowered the year-end probability from the long-term baseline near 50%. Upcoming CNEOS monthly updates and any new orbital detections could shift odds if an undetected object approaches, but the current distribution of small near-Earth objects supports the modest likelihood of resolution to Yes by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市場開放時間： Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
交易量
$300,653結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.The market-implied 36.5% chance of a 5kt meteor strike in 2026 stems primarily from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball database, which records an average of roughly one 5kt-scale airburst or ground impact per year globally. Most events occur over oceans or remote areas and register as bolides with peak energies around 5–20kt TNT equivalent, consistent with 1–10 meter objects entering at typical velocities. With no confirmed 5kt+ event recorded in the first four-plus months of 2026, traders have lowered the year-end probability from the long-term baseline near 50%. Upcoming CNEOS monthly updates and any new orbital detections could shift odds if an undetected object approaches, but the current distribution of small near-Earth objects supports the modest likelihood of resolution to Yes by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$300,653結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The market-implied 36.5% chance of a 5kt meteor strike in 2026 stems primarily from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball database, which records an average of roughly one 5kt-scale airburst or ground impact per year globally. Most events occur over oceans or remote areas and register as bolides with peak energies around 5–20kt TNT equivalent, consistent with 1–10 meter objects entering at typical velocities. With no confirmed 5kt+ event recorded in the first four-plus months of 2026, traders have lowered the year-end probability from the long-term baseline near 50%. Upcoming CNEOS monthly updates and any new orbital detections could shift odds if an undetected object approaches, but the current distribution of small near-Earth objects supports the modest likelihood of resolution to Yes by December 31.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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