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icon for 2026年人類登月？
科技·文化

2026年人類登月？

icon for 2026年人類登月？
科技·文化

2026年人類登月？

是

<1% 機率
Polymarket

$1,967,148 交易量

是

<1% 機率
Polymarket

$1,967,148 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.NASA's February 2026 decision to re-profile Artemis III as a low-Earth orbit demonstration mission rather than a lunar landing underpins the 99% market-implied odds against a human moon landing in 2026. Delays in SpaceX Starship human landing system development, unproven in-orbit refueling, and SLS/Orion readiness pushed the first crewed surface mission to Artemis IV targeted for early 2028. Artemis II's April 2026 lunar flyby validated crewed deep-space operations but performed no landing, and no other agency or commercial provider has announced a 2026 surface attempt. With only months remaining in the year and no demonstrated hardware or launch cadence capable of supporting a landing, traders see virtually no pathway forward despite the inherent uncertainty in complex space programs.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,967,148
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.NASA's February 2026 decision to re-profile Artemis III as a low-Earth orbit demonstration mission rather than a lunar landing underpins the 99% market-implied odds against a human moon landing in 2026. Delays in SpaceX Starship human landing system development, unproven in-orbit refueling, and SLS/Orion readiness pushed the first crewed surface mission to Artemis IV targeted for early 2028. Artemis II's April 2026 lunar flyby validated crewed deep-space operations but performed no landing, and no other agency or commercial provider has announced a 2026 surface attempt. With only months remaining in the year and no demonstrated hardware or launch cadence capable of supporting a landing, traders see virtually no pathway forward despite the inherent uncertainty in complex space programs.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,967,148
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年人類登月？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "人類將於2026年登陸月球？" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 1¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 1% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年人類登月？" has generated $2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年人類登月？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "2026年人類登月？" is "人類將於2026年登陸月球？" at just 1%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "2026年人類登月？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.