Traders assign a 99.2% probability against a human moon landing in 2026 because NASA's Artemis program has shifted its first crewed lunar landing target to Artemis IV in 2028 after multiple schedule slips. Artemis II completed a successful crewed lunar flyby in April 2026 without landing, while Artemis III was restructured as a 2027 low-Earth-orbit demonstration to validate SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin landers. Persistent technical challenges with Starship's lunar variant, including orbital refueling and landing system integration, plus the need for additional uncrewed tests, make any 2026 surface mission infeasible under current timelines. A sudden acceleration through regulatory or funding changes remains theoretically possible but would require overcoming established development milestones that have already driven repeated delays.