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Tech·Culture

Human moon landing in 2026?

icon for Human moon landing in 2026?
Tech·Culture

Human moon landing in 2026?

3% 機率
Polymarket

$1,953,572 交易量

3% 機率
Polymarket

$1,953,572 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" for a human moon landing in 2026 (97% implied probability) due to confirmed schedule shifts in NASA's Artemis program.** Artemis II, the first crewed lunar flyby since Apollo, launched successfully on April 1, 2026, and returned in mid-April, validating SLS and Orion systems but without any landing capability. NASA then restructured the sequence in February 2026: the original Artemis III landing target moved to Artemis IV in 2028, while a redesigned Artemis III became a 2027 low-Earth orbit demonstration flight focused on docking tests with lunar landers from SpaceX (Starship HLS) and Blue Origin (Blue Moon). Starship lunar landing hardware remains in early development, with uncrewed demos and crewed surface operations not slated before late 2027 at the earliest. No other agency or commercial effort has demonstrated the necessary orbital refueling, lander readiness, or safety certifications for a 2026 crewed touchdown. Historical Artemis delays—driven by technical integration, testing shortfalls, and supply chain issues—reinforce the timeline. While near-term breakthroughs in private Starship flights or unexpected international acceleration could theoretically compress schedules, realistic barriers like regulatory approvals, vehicle certification, and the remaining six months of 2026 make any reversal highly improbable. The market reflects aggregated trader assessment of these verified program milestones rather than speculation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,953,572
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" for a human moon landing in 2026 (97% implied probability) due to confirmed schedule shifts in NASA's Artemis program.** Artemis II, the first crewed lunar flyby since Apollo, launched successfully on April 1, 2026, and returned in mid-April, validating SLS and Orion systems but without any landing capability. NASA then restructured the sequence in February 2026: the original Artemis III landing target moved to Artemis IV in 2028, while a redesigned Artemis III became a 2027 low-Earth orbit demonstration flight focused on docking tests with lunar landers from SpaceX (Starship HLS) and Blue Origin (Blue Moon). Starship lunar landing hardware remains in early development, with uncrewed demos and crewed surface operations not slated before late 2027 at the earliest. No other agency or commercial effort has demonstrated the necessary orbital refueling, lander readiness, or safety certifications for a 2026 crewed touchdown. Historical Artemis delays—driven by technical integration, testing shortfalls, and supply chain issues—reinforce the timeline. While near-term breakthroughs in private Starship flights or unexpected international acceleration could theoretically compress schedules, realistic barriers like regulatory approvals, vehicle certification, and the remaining six months of 2026 make any reversal highly improbable. The market reflects aggregated trader assessment of these verified program milestones rather than speculation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,953,572
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Human moon landing in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 3% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 3¢, the market collectively assigns a 3% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Human moon landing in 2026?" has generated $2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Human moon landing in 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Human moon landing in 2026?" is 3% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 3% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Human moon landing in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.