2026年夏天會是法國有史以來最熱的夏天嗎？

是

>99% 機率

最新

2026-12-31

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Météo-France's official seasonal climate report, the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026," states that meteorological summer 2026 (1 June to 31 August 2026) is the warmest summer in France in the Météo-France record, which begins in 1900, as measured by the national average temperature ("température moyenne") calculated by Météo-France. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the avoidance of doubt, summer 2026 must be the single warmest summer on record. If Météo-France reports summer 2026 as tied for warmest with a prior year, or ranks it anything other than first, this market resolves to "No". The primary resolution source is the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026" published by Météo-France, the French national meteorological service which is typically published in the first week of September. If the seasonal report has not been published by September 30, 2026, this market may alternatively resolve using the equivalent statement on the Météo-France seasonal summaries page (https://meteofrance.fr/actualite/publications/2026-les-bilans-climatiques) or in an official Météo-France press release covering the summer 2026 season. If Météo-France has not published a summer 2026 climate summary by December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on credible reporting (e.g., Reuters, AFP, France 24) confirming whether summer 2026 is the warmest summer on record.

市場開放時間： Aug 12, 2026, 11:18 AM ET

交易量

$1,715

結束日期

2027-01-01

市場開放時間

Aug 12, 2026, 11:18 AM ET

結算來源

https://meteofrance.fr/actualite/publications/2026-les-bilans-climatiques

結算方

0x65070BE91...

交易量

$1,715

結束日期

2027-01-01

市場開放時間

Aug 12, 2026, 11:18 AM ET

結算來源

https://meteofrance.fr/actualite/publications/2026-les-bilans-climatiques

結算方

0x65070BE91...

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年夏天會是法國有史以來最熱的夏天嗎？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2026 年夏天會成為法國有史以來最熱的夏天嗎？" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"2026年夏天會是法國有史以來最熱的夏天嗎？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 12, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "2026年夏天會是法國有史以來最熱的夏天嗎？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年夏天會是法國有史以來最熱的夏天嗎？" is "2026 年夏天會成為法國有史以來最熱的夏天嗎？" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年夏天會是法國有史以來最熱的夏天嗎？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "2026年夏天會是法國有史以來最熱的夏天嗎？." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “2026年夏天會是法國有史以來最熱的夏天嗎？” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "2026年夏天會是法國有史以來最熱的夏天嗎？," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 100¢ for "2026 年夏天會成為法國有史以來最熱的夏天嗎？" in the "2026年夏天會是法國有史以來最熱的夏天嗎？" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 100% chance that "2026 年夏天會成為法國有史以來最熱的夏天嗎？" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 100¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 0¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "2026年夏天會是法國有史以來最熱的夏天嗎？" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "2026年夏天會是法國有史以來最熱的夏天嗎？" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "2026年夏天會是法國有史以來最熱的夏天嗎？." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

2026年夏天會是法國有史以來最熱的夏天嗎？

2026年夏天會是法國有史以來最熱的夏天嗎？

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2026年夏天會是法國有史以來最熱的夏天嗎？

2026年夏天會是法國有史以來最熱的夏天嗎？

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