Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C in August 2026 and forecasts pointing to further intensification, represent the dominant near-term driver boosting September global temperatures. This adds to the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has placed the past decade's Septembers among the warmest on record. Record-high ocean heat content and a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole further elevate baseline warmth. Trader-implied odds remain closely balanced across first-, second-, and third-hottest outcomes because short-term atmospheric variability, exact model consensus on peak El Niño timing, and minor differences across temperature datasets introduce uncertainty around whether September 2026 surpasses or falls just behind prior peaks such as 2023 or 2024.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2026年9月第1、第2或第3熱門？
2026年9月第1、第2或第3熱門？
最熱的第 1 名 47%
第二熱 47%
第三熱 24%
第4或更低 12%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
最熱的第 1 名
47%
第二熱
47%
第三熱
24%
第4或更低
12%
最熱的第 1 名 47%
第二熱 47%
第三熱 24%
第4或更低 12%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
最熱的第 1 名
$0 交易量
47%
第二熱
$0 交易量
47%
第三熱
$0 交易量
24%
第4或更低
$250 交易量
12%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C in August 2026 and forecasts pointing to further intensification, represent the dominant near-term driver boosting September global temperatures. This adds to the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has placed the past decade's Septembers among the warmest on record. Record-high ocean heat content and a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole further elevate baseline warmth. Trader-implied odds remain closely balanced across first-, second-, and third-hottest outcomes because short-term atmospheric variability, exact model consensus on peak El Niño timing, and minor differences across temperature datasets introduce uncertainty around whether September 2026 surpasses or falls just behind prior peaks such as 2023 or 2024.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
市場開放時間： Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
交易量
$250結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C in August 2026 and forecasts pointing to further intensification, represent the dominant near-term driver boosting September global temperatures. This adds to the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has placed the past decade's Septembers among the warmest on record. Record-high ocean heat content and a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole further elevate baseline warmth. Trader-implied odds remain closely balanced across first-, second-, and third-hottest outcomes because short-term atmospheric variability, exact model consensus on peak El Niño timing, and minor differences across temperature datasets introduce uncertainty around whether September 2026 surpasses or falls just behind prior peaks such as 2023 or 2024.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
交易量
$250結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETStrong El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C in August 2026 and forecasts pointing to further intensification, represent the dominant near-term driver boosting September global temperatures. This adds to the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has placed the past decade's Septembers among the warmest on record. Record-high ocean heat content and a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole further elevate baseline warmth. Trader-implied odds remain closely balanced across first-, second-, and third-hottest outcomes because short-term atmospheric variability, exact model consensus on peak El Niño timing, and minor differences across temperature datasets introduce uncertainty around whether September 2026 surpasses or falls just behind prior peaks such as 2023 or 2024.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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