No major VEI ≥6 eruption has occurred through mid-June 2026, aligning with the 90.5% market-implied probability of none by year-end. Global recurrence intervals for such colossal events—defined by roughly 10 km³ or more of tephra and plumes exceeding 25 km—typically span 50–100 years, with the most recent example being Pinatubo in 1991. USGS and Smithsonian monitoring reports confirm only background seismicity and minor activity at U.S. and global volcanoes, including ongoing but low-VEI effusive episodes at Kīlauea. Traders weigh this low baseline frequency heavily. A rapid escalation at an unmonitored caldera or submarine system remains possible, though current data show no precursors suggesting an imminent shift.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
$116,175 交易量
$116,175 交易量
2027-03-31
$116,175 交易量
$116,175 交易量
2027-03-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.No major VEI ≥6 eruption has occurred through mid-June 2026, aligning with the 90.5% market-implied probability of none by year-end. Global recurrence intervals for such colossal events—defined by roughly 10 km³ or more of tephra and plumes exceeding 25 km—typically span 50–100 years, with the most recent example being Pinatubo in 1991. USGS and Smithsonian monitoring reports confirm only background seismicity and minor activity at U.S. and global volcanoes, including ongoing but low-VEI effusive episodes at Kīlauea. Traders weigh this low baseline frequency heavily. A rapid escalation at an unmonitored caldera or submarine system remains possible, though current data show no precursors suggesting an imminent shift.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
交易量
$116,175結束日期
2027-03-31市場開放時間
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.No major VEI ≥6 eruption has occurred through mid-June 2026, aligning with the 90.5% market-implied probability of none by year-end. Global recurrence intervals for such colossal events—defined by roughly 10 km³ or more of tephra and plumes exceeding 25 km—typically span 50–100 years, with the most recent example being Pinatubo in 1991. USGS and Smithsonian monitoring reports confirm only background seismicity and minor activity at U.S. and global volcanoes, including ongoing but low-VEI effusive episodes at Kīlauea. Traders weigh this low baseline frequency heavily. A rapid escalation at an unmonitored caldera or submarine system remains possible, though current data show no precursors suggesting an imminent shift.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
交易量
$116,175結束日期
2027-03-31市場開放時間
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No major VEI ≥6 eruption has occurred through mid-June 2026, aligning with the 90.5% market-implied probability of none by year-end. Global recurrence intervals for such colossal events—defined by roughly 10 km³ or more of tephra and plumes exceeding 25 km—typically span 50–100 years, with the most recent example being Pinatubo in 1991. USGS and Smithsonian monitoring reports confirm only background seismicity and minor activity at U.S. and global volcanoes, including ongoing but low-VEI effusive episodes at Kīlauea. Traders weigh this low baseline frequency heavily. A rapid escalation at an unmonitored caldera or submarine system remains possible, though current data show no precursors suggesting an imminent shift.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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