The strong market consensus against a VEI 6 or greater eruption in 2026 stems from the well-documented rarity of such events in the geologic record. Large explosive eruptions of this scale occur globally only a handful of times per century on average, with recurrence intervals typically spanning 50–100 years. Current monitoring by the U.S. Geological Survey shows no volcano exhibiting the sustained magma chamber pressurization, seismic swarms, or ground deformation needed to reach VEI 6 intensity within the remaining months of the year. While an unexpected rapid escalation at a restless system such as Indonesia’s Merapi or Alaska’s Katmai could theoretically alter that outlook, historical patterns and ongoing instrumental data continue to support the low-probability assessment.