Trader consensus assigns a 92.5% implied probability against any Vesuvius eruption reaching VEI 1 or higher in 2026, driven by persistently low-level activity reported in the INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano’s April 2026 bulletin. Seismic events totaled roughly 68, nearly all below magnitude 1.0, with only brief, deep swarms in early 2026 that rapidly declined. Ground deformation remains stable, fumarolic emissions steady, and geochemical and thermal parameters unremarkable, consistent with the volcano’s quiescent regime since its 1944 VEI 3 eruption. The current green alert level reflects this baseline. Sudden increases in long-period seismicity, measurable uplift indicating magma ascent, or spikes in sulfur dioxide flux could alter the outlook; the May INGV bulletin and real-time seismic data will provide the next key updates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
最新
最新
2026-12-31
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.Trader consensus assigns a 92.5% implied probability against any Vesuvius eruption reaching VEI 1 or higher in 2026, driven by persistently low-level activity reported in the INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano’s April 2026 bulletin. Seismic events totaled roughly 68, nearly all below magnitude 1.0, with only brief, deep swarms in early 2026 that rapidly declined. Ground deformation remains stable, fumarolic emissions steady, and geochemical and thermal parameters unremarkable, consistent with the volcano’s quiescent regime since its 1944 VEI 3 eruption. The current green alert level reflects this baseline. Sudden increases in long-period seismicity, measurable uplift indicating magma ascent, or spikes in sulfur dioxide flux could alter the outlook; the May INGV bulletin and real-time seismic data will provide the next key updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
市場開放時間： Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
交易量
$431結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.Trader consensus assigns a 92.5% implied probability against any Vesuvius eruption reaching VEI 1 or higher in 2026, driven by persistently low-level activity reported in the INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano’s April 2026 bulletin. Seismic events totaled roughly 68, nearly all below magnitude 1.0, with only brief, deep swarms in early 2026 that rapidly declined. Ground deformation remains stable, fumarolic emissions steady, and geochemical and thermal parameters unremarkable, consistent with the volcano’s quiescent regime since its 1944 VEI 3 eruption. The current green alert level reflects this baseline. Sudden increases in long-period seismicity, measurable uplift indicating magma ascent, or spikes in sulfur dioxide flux could alter the outlook; the May INGV bulletin and real-time seismic data will provide the next key updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
交易量
$431結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 92.5% implied probability against any Vesuvius eruption reaching VEI 1 or higher in 2026, driven by persistently low-level activity reported in the INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano’s April 2026 bulletin. Seismic events totaled roughly 68, nearly all below magnitude 1.0, with only brief, deep swarms in early 2026 that rapidly declined. Ground deformation remains stable, fumarolic emissions steady, and geochemical and thermal parameters unremarkable, consistent with the volcano’s quiescent regime since its 1944 VEI 3 eruption. The current green alert level reflects this baseline. Sudden increases in long-period seismicity, measurable uplift indicating magma ascent, or spikes in sulfur dioxide flux could alter the outlook; the May INGV bulletin and real-time seismic data will provide the next key updates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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