Forecast models for Shenzhen on August 15, 2026, indicate a narrow range of possible daily maximum temperatures centered on 32–33°C under typical subtropical summer conditions, which explains why these two outcomes hold nearly equal market-implied probabilities around 30%. Afternoon peak readings hinge on small differences in cloud cover, humidity levels, sea-breeze timing, and localized convection, any of which can shift the observed high by 1°C. Historical August averages near 32°C provide climatological context, while current guidance from regional models shows no strong signals for either suppression below 32°C or rapid intensification to 34°C or higher. Traders are therefore weighting the most recent model consensus and the narrow uncertainty band that official China Meteorological Administration observations will resolve within the next 24 hours.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月15日深圳最高溫度？
8月15日深圳最高溫度？
33°C 31%
32°C 30%
34°C 17%
31°C 15%
最新
最新
2026-08-15
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
5%
31°C
15%
32°C
30%
33°C
31%
34°C
17%
35°C
5%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
1%
33°C 31%
32°C 30%
34°C 17%
31°C 15%
最新
最新
2026-08-15
27°C or below
$819 交易量
<1%
28°C
$1,900 交易量
1%
29°C
$565 交易量
1%
30°C
$190 交易量
5%
31°C
$143 交易量
15%
32°C
$368 交易量
30%
33°C
$2,346 交易量
31%
34°C
$351 交易量
17%
35°C
$739 交易量
5%
36°C
$672 交易量
1%
37°C or higher
$992 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models for Shenzhen on August 15, 2026, indicate a narrow range of possible daily maximum temperatures centered on 32–33°C under typical subtropical summer conditions, which explains why these two outcomes hold nearly equal market-implied probabilities around 30%. Afternoon peak readings hinge on small differences in cloud cover, humidity levels, sea-breeze timing, and localized convection, any of which can shift the observed high by 1°C. Historical August averages near 32°C provide climatological context, while current guidance from regional models shows no strong signals for either suppression below 32°C or rapid intensification to 34°C or higher. Traders are therefore weighting the most recent model consensus and the narrow uncertainty band that official China Meteorological Administration observations will resolve within the next 24 hours.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$9,085結束日期
2026-08-15市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models for Shenzhen on August 15, 2026, indicate a narrow range of possible daily maximum temperatures centered on 32–33°C under typical subtropical summer conditions, which explains why these two outcomes hold nearly equal market-implied probabilities around 30%. Afternoon peak readings hinge on small differences in cloud cover, humidity levels, sea-breeze timing, and localized convection, any of which can shift the observed high by 1°C. Historical August averages near 32°C provide climatological context, while current guidance from regional models shows no strong signals for either suppression below 32°C or rapid intensification to 34°C or higher. Traders are therefore weighting the most recent model consensus and the narrow uncertainty band that official China Meteorological Administration observations will resolve within the next 24 hours.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$9,085結束日期
2026-08-15市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETForecast models for Shenzhen on August 15, 2026, indicate a narrow range of possible daily maximum temperatures centered on 32–33°C under typical subtropical summer conditions, which explains why these two outcomes hold nearly equal market-implied probabilities around 30%. Afternoon peak readings hinge on small differences in cloud cover, humidity levels, sea-breeze timing, and localized convection, any of which can shift the observed high by 1°C. Historical August averages near 32°C provide climatological context, while current guidance from regional models shows no strong signals for either suppression below 32°C or rapid intensification to 34°C or higher. Traders are therefore weighting the most recent model consensus and the narrow uncertainty band that official China Meteorological Administration observations will resolve within the next 24 hours.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions