Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models indicate a daily high near 30–31°C in Beijing on August 16 under the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high and lingering East Asian monsoon moisture. This positions trader consensus around 27–29°C as the most probable range, reflecting uncertainty from variable cloud cover, potential light thundershowers, and boundary-layer mixing that can suppress peak temperatures by 1–3°C. Historical mid-August climatology supports highs near 30°C, but short-term model spread on humidity and wind patterns widens implied probabilities across 26–30°C outcomes. Updated guidance ahead of the 24-hour window will clarify radiative heating versus convective cooling effects.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月16日北京最高溫度？
8月16日北京最高溫度？
28°C 25%
27°C 18.9%
29°C 18%
30°C 13%
最新
$27,729 交易量
最新
$27,729 交易量
2026-08-16
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
4%
26°C
9%
27°C
19%
28°C
25%
29°C
18%
30°C
13%
31°C
6%
32°C
1%
33°C or higher
<1%
28°C 25%
27°C 18.9%
29°C 18%
30°C 13%
最新
$27,729 交易量
最新
$27,729 交易量
2026-08-16
23°C or below
$387 交易量
<1%
24°C
$392 交易量
<1%
25°C
$3,625 交易量
4%
26°C
$3,301 交易量
9%
27°C
$2,127 交易量
19%
28°C
$1,476 交易量
25%
29°C
$2,328 交易量
18%
30°C
$3,925 交易量
13%
31°C
$5,735 交易量
6%
32°C
$2,772 交易量
1%
33°C or higher
$1,864 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models indicate a daily high near 30–31°C in Beijing on August 16 under the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high and lingering East Asian monsoon moisture. This positions trader consensus around 27–29°C as the most probable range, reflecting uncertainty from variable cloud cover, potential light thundershowers, and boundary-layer mixing that can suppress peak temperatures by 1–3°C. Historical mid-August climatology supports highs near 30°C, but short-term model spread on humidity and wind patterns widens implied probabilities across 26–30°C outcomes. Updated guidance ahead of the 24-hour window will clarify radiative heating versus convective cooling effects.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$27,729結束日期
2026-08-16市場開放時間
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models indicate a daily high near 30–31°C in Beijing on August 16 under the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high and lingering East Asian monsoon moisture. This positions trader consensus around 27–29°C as the most probable range, reflecting uncertainty from variable cloud cover, potential light thundershowers, and boundary-layer mixing that can suppress peak temperatures by 1–3°C. Historical mid-August climatology supports highs near 30°C, but short-term model spread on humidity and wind patterns widens implied probabilities across 26–30°C outcomes. Updated guidance ahead of the 24-hour window will clarify radiative heating versus convective cooling effects.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$27,729結束日期
2026-08-16市場開放時間
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models indicate a daily high near 30–31°C in Beijing on August 16 under the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high and lingering East Asian monsoon moisture. This positions trader consensus around 27–29°C as the most probable range, reflecting uncertainty from variable cloud cover, potential light thundershowers, and boundary-layer mixing that can suppress peak temperatures by 1–3°C. Historical mid-August climatology supports highs near 30°C, but short-term model spread on humidity and wind patterns widens implied probabilities across 26–30°C outcomes. Updated guidance ahead of the 24-hour window will clarify radiative heating versus convective cooling effects.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions