Forecast models from ECMWF and GFS ensembles show closely spaced maximum temperature projections for Amsterdam on August 14, with ensemble spreads centered near 32–34 °C. This tight clustering drives the market’s leading implied probabilities for those three outcomes. Key variables include the strength and position of a surface high-pressure ridge, boundary-layer moisture, and 850 hPa temperatures, all of which exhibit modest day-to-day variability in the current medium-range guidance. Recent model runs have shown minor shifts in the timing of peak heating relative to the daily maximum, producing the observed dispersion among 32 °C, 33 °C, and 34 °C. Updated short-range forecasts and local KNMI verification data over the next 48 hours will narrow this range and determine the final recorded high.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月14日阿姆斯特丹的最高溫度？
8月14日阿姆斯特丹的最高溫度？
33°C 31%
34°C 28%
32°C 19%
35°C 9%
最新
最新
2026-08-14
28°C或以下
1%
29°C
2%
30°C
4%
31°C
8%
32°C
19%
33°C
31%
34°C
28%
35°C
9%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C或以上
<1%
33°C 31%
34°C 28%
32°C 19%
35°C 9%
最新
最新
2026-08-14
28°C或以下
$689 交易量
1%
29°C
$190 交易量
2%
30°C
$178 交易量
4%
31°C
$236 交易量
8%
32°C
$48 交易量
19%
33°C
$92 交易量
31%
34°C
$34 交易量
28%
35°C
$51 交易量
9%
36°C
$110 交易量
1%
37°C
$12 交易量
1%
38°C或以上
$16 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from ECMWF and GFS ensembles show closely spaced maximum temperature projections for Amsterdam on August 14, with ensemble spreads centered near 32–34 °C. This tight clustering drives the market’s leading implied probabilities for those three outcomes. Key variables include the strength and position of a surface high-pressure ridge, boundary-layer moisture, and 850 hPa temperatures, all of which exhibit modest day-to-day variability in the current medium-range guidance. Recent model runs have shown minor shifts in the timing of peak heating relative to the daily maximum, producing the observed dispersion among 32 °C, 33 °C, and 34 °C. Updated short-range forecasts and local KNMI verification data over the next 48 hours will narrow this range and determine the final recorded high.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
交易量
$1,656結束日期
2026-08-14市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from ECMWF and GFS ensembles show closely spaced maximum temperature projections for Amsterdam on August 14, with ensemble spreads centered near 32–34 °C. This tight clustering drives the market’s leading implied probabilities for those three outcomes. Key variables include the strength and position of a surface high-pressure ridge, boundary-layer moisture, and 850 hPa temperatures, all of which exhibit modest day-to-day variability in the current medium-range guidance. Recent model runs have shown minor shifts in the timing of peak heating relative to the daily maximum, producing the observed dispersion among 32 °C, 33 °C, and 34 °C. Updated short-range forecasts and local KNMI verification data over the next 48 hours will narrow this range and determine the final recorded high.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,656結束日期
2026-08-14市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETForecast models from ECMWF and GFS ensembles show closely spaced maximum temperature projections for Amsterdam on August 14, with ensemble spreads centered near 32–34 °C. This tight clustering drives the market’s leading implied probabilities for those three outcomes. Key variables include the strength and position of a surface high-pressure ridge, boundary-layer moisture, and 850 hPa temperatures, all of which exhibit modest day-to-day variability in the current medium-range guidance. Recent model runs have shown minor shifts in the timing of peak heating relative to the daily maximum, producing the observed dispersion among 32 °C, 33 °C, and 34 °C. Updated short-range forecasts and local KNMI verification data over the next 48 hours will narrow this range and determine the final recorded high.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions