Recent typhoon activity, including Dolphin’s landfall near Zhejiang on August 9, has introduced persistent cloud cover, widespread showers, and northeasterly winds that suppress daytime heating across Shanghai. Official forecasts from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration and global models now converge on a maximum of 28–30 °C for August 12, well below the month’s climatological average of ~31–32 °C. These conditions—reduced insolation, evaporative cooling from rain, and enhanced mixing—anchor trader sentiment around the 29 °C outcome (52.5 % implied probability), with 28 °C and 30 °C capturing residual model spread. Updated guidance expected overnight will determine whether probabilities shift further.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月12日上海最高溫度？
8月12日上海最高溫度？
29°C 55%
28°C 21%
30°C 17%
27°C 5%
最新
$26,625 交易量
最新
$26,625 交易量
2026-08-12
24°C或以下
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
5%
28°C
21%
29°C
55%
30°C
17%
31°C
3%
32°C
1%
33°C
<1%
34°C或以上
<1%
29°C 55%
28°C 21%
30°C 17%
27°C 5%
最新
$26,625 交易量
最新
$26,625 交易量
2026-08-12
24°C或以下
$796 交易量
<1%
25°C
$821 交易量
<1%
26°C
$1,558 交易量
1%
27°C
$2,903 交易量
5%
28°C
$8,039 交易量
21%
29°C
$4,276 交易量
55%
30°C
$3,929 交易量
17%
31°C
$2,290 交易量
3%
32°C
$552 交易量
1%
33°C
$929 交易量
<1%
34°C或以上
$532 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent typhoon activity, including Dolphin’s landfall near Zhejiang on August 9, has introduced persistent cloud cover, widespread showers, and northeasterly winds that suppress daytime heating across Shanghai. Official forecasts from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration and global models now converge on a maximum of 28–30 °C for August 12, well below the month’s climatological average of ~31–32 °C. These conditions—reduced insolation, evaporative cooling from rain, and enhanced mixing—anchor trader sentiment around the 29 °C outcome (52.5 % implied probability), with 28 °C and 30 °C capturing residual model spread. Updated guidance expected overnight will determine whether probabilities shift further.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
交易量
$26,625結束日期
2026-08-12市場開放時間
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent typhoon activity, including Dolphin’s landfall near Zhejiang on August 9, has introduced persistent cloud cover, widespread showers, and northeasterly winds that suppress daytime heating across Shanghai. Official forecasts from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration and global models now converge on a maximum of 28–30 °C for August 12, well below the month’s climatological average of ~31–32 °C. These conditions—reduced insolation, evaporative cooling from rain, and enhanced mixing—anchor trader sentiment around the 29 °C outcome (52.5 % implied probability), with 28 °C and 30 °C capturing residual model spread. Updated guidance expected overnight will determine whether probabilities shift further.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$26,625結束日期
2026-08-12市場開放時間
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETRecent typhoon activity, including Dolphin’s landfall near Zhejiang on August 9, has introduced persistent cloud cover, widespread showers, and northeasterly winds that suppress daytime heating across Shanghai. Official forecasts from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration and global models now converge on a maximum of 28–30 °C for August 12, well below the month’s climatological average of ~31–32 °C. These conditions—reduced insolation, evaporative cooling from rain, and enhanced mixing—anchor trader sentiment around the 29 °C outcome (52.5 % implied probability), with 28 °C and 30 °C capturing residual model spread. Updated guidance expected overnight will determine whether probabilities shift further.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions