Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models indicate a high-pressure ridge over Western Europe driving maximum temperatures in Paris toward the low 30s Celsius on August 11, with ensemble members clustering between 30–33°C. This setup favors 31–32°C outcomes, as reflected in the closely matched market-implied probabilities, though subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture and daytime heating rates create the observed spread. Historical August climatology places typical highs near 25°C, underscoring the anomalous warmth, while model consensus on steering flow and limited cloud cover supports limited upside risk above 33°C. Updated high-resolution runs and observational data from Météo-France expected within 24–48 hours will refine the precise peak value ahead of market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月11日巴黎最高溫度？
8月11日巴黎最高溫度？
32°C 34%
31°C 33%
30°C 22%
33°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-08-11
28°C或以下
1%
29°C
3%
30°C
22%
31°C
33%
32°C
34%
33°C
11%
34°C
2%
35°C
1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C或以上
<1%
32°C 34%
31°C 33%
30°C 22%
33°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-08-11
28°C或以下
$4,662 交易量
1%
29°C
$165 交易量
3%
30°C
$1,941 交易量
22%
31°C
$616 交易量
33%
32°C
$477 交易量
34%
33°C
$303 交易量
11%
34°C
$187 交易量
2%
35°C
$356 交易量
1%
36°C
$110 交易量
<1%
37°C
$157 交易量
<1%
38°C或以上
$167 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models indicate a high-pressure ridge over Western Europe driving maximum temperatures in Paris toward the low 30s Celsius on August 11, with ensemble members clustering between 30–33°C. This setup favors 31–32°C outcomes, as reflected in the closely matched market-implied probabilities, though subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture and daytime heating rates create the observed spread. Historical August climatology places typical highs near 25°C, underscoring the anomalous warmth, while model consensus on steering flow and limited cloud cover supports limited upside risk above 33°C. Updated high-resolution runs and observational data from Météo-France expected within 24–48 hours will refine the precise peak value ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 9, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$9,141結束日期
2026-08-11市場開放時間
Aug 9, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models indicate a high-pressure ridge over Western Europe driving maximum temperatures in Paris toward the low 30s Celsius on August 11, with ensemble members clustering between 30–33°C. This setup favors 31–32°C outcomes, as reflected in the closely matched market-implied probabilities, though subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture and daytime heating rates create the observed spread. Historical August climatology places typical highs near 25°C, underscoring the anomalous warmth, while model consensus on steering flow and limited cloud cover supports limited upside risk above 33°C. Updated high-resolution runs and observational data from Météo-France expected within 24–48 hours will refine the precise peak value ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$9,141結束日期
2026-08-11市場開放時間
Aug 9, 2026, 12:03 AM ETRecent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models indicate a high-pressure ridge over Western Europe driving maximum temperatures in Paris toward the low 30s Celsius on August 11, with ensemble members clustering between 30–33°C. This setup favors 31–32°C outcomes, as reflected in the closely matched market-implied probabilities, though subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture and daytime heating rates create the observed spread. Historical August climatology places typical highs near 25°C, underscoring the anomalous warmth, while model consensus on steering flow and limited cloud cover supports limited upside risk above 33°C. Updated high-resolution runs and observational data from Météo-France expected within 24–48 hours will refine the precise peak value ahead of market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions