Trader consensus on a 17°C overnight low for Paris on August 11 stems from consistent numerical weather prediction outputs showing minimal radiative cooling under clear, warm conditions during the current heatwave, with afternoon highs near 33°C limiting nocturnal temperature drops. Mid-August climatology supports typical lows of 15–18°C, and recent model runs from agencies like Météo-France align closely with this value without significant cold-air advection. The market-implied probability exceeds 99% because deviations would require unexpected factors such as increased cloud cover, a passing front, or localized urban heat island suppression. Resolution hinges on official station readings at Paris-Montsouris, where even modest forecast errors of 1–2°C could shift the exact minimum.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月11日巴黎最低溫度？
8月11日巴黎最低溫度？
17°C 100.0%
14°C或以下 <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$11,171 交易量
$11,171 交易量
2026-08-11
14°C或以下
否
15°C
否
16°C
否
17°C
是
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C
否
21°C
否
22°C
否
23°C
否
24°C或以上
否
17°C 100.0%
14°C或以下 <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$11,171 交易量
$11,171 交易量
2026-08-11
14°C或以下
$698 交易量
否
15°C
$660 交易量
否
16°C
$1,149 交易量
否
17°C
$2,754 交易量
是
18°C
$1,641 交易量
否
19°C
$551 交易量
否
20°C
$1,433 交易量
否
21°C
$852 交易量
否
22°C
$350 交易量
否
23°C
$350 交易量
否
24°C或以上
$733 交易量
否
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus on a 17°C overnight low for Paris on August 11 stems from consistent numerical weather prediction outputs showing minimal radiative cooling under clear, warm conditions during the current heatwave, with afternoon highs near 33°C limiting nocturnal temperature drops. Mid-August climatology supports typical lows of 15–18°C, and recent model runs from agencies like Météo-France align closely with this value without significant cold-air advection. The market-implied probability exceeds 99% because deviations would require unexpected factors such as increased cloud cover, a passing front, or localized urban heat island suppression. Resolution hinges on official station readings at Paris-Montsouris, where even modest forecast errors of 1–2°C could shift the exact minimum.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$11,171結束日期
2026-08-11市場開放時間
Aug 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus on a 17°C overnight low for Paris on August 11 stems from consistent numerical weather prediction outputs showing minimal radiative cooling under clear, warm conditions during the current heatwave, with afternoon highs near 33°C limiting nocturnal temperature drops. Mid-August climatology supports typical lows of 15–18°C, and recent model runs from agencies like Météo-France align closely with this value without significant cold-air advection. The market-implied probability exceeds 99% because deviations would require unexpected factors such as increased cloud cover, a passing front, or localized urban heat island suppression. Resolution hinges on official station readings at Paris-Montsouris, where even modest forecast errors of 1–2°C could shift the exact minimum.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$11,171結束日期
2026-08-11市場開放時間
Aug 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Trader consensus on a 17°C overnight low for Paris on August 11 stems from consistent numerical weather prediction outputs showing minimal radiative cooling under clear, warm conditions during the current heatwave, with afternoon highs near 33°C limiting nocturnal temperature drops. Mid-August climatology supports typical lows of 15–18°C, and recent model runs from agencies like Météo-France align closely with this value without significant cold-air advection. The market-implied probability exceeds 99% because deviations would require unexpected factors such as increased cloud cover, a passing front, or localized urban heat island suppression. Resolution hinges on official station readings at Paris-Montsouris, where even modest forecast errors of 1–2°C could shift the exact minimum.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions