Recent weather model consensus from Météo-France and international agencies points to stable high-pressure conditions and warm southerly flow favoring peak temperatures in the mid-30s Celsius for Paris on August 12. Ensemble forecasts and historical analogs for early-to-mid August under similar synoptic patterns support 34–36°C as the most probable range, with limited convective cooling expected. The market's heavy weighting toward 35°C reflects traders' assessment of current guidance stability two days ahead, while lower probabilities on 37°C or higher account for potential model shifts in timing or localized maxima before resolution. Updated runs and official bulletins remain the key near-term catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月12日巴黎最高溫度？
8月12日巴黎最高溫度？
35°C 41%
34°C 34%
36°C 18%
33°C 9%
最新
最新
2026-08-12
29°C或以下
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
1%
33°C
9%
34°C
34%
35°C
41%
36°C
18%
37°C
6%
38°C
5%
39°C或更高
3%
35°C 41%
34°C 34%
36°C 18%
33°C 9%
最新
最新
2026-08-12
29°C或以下
$26 交易量
<1%
30°C
$0 交易量
<1%
31°C
$0 交易量
1%
32°C
$0 交易量
1%
33°C
$0 交易量
9%
34°C
$34 交易量
34%
35°C
$28 交易量
41%
36°C
$16 交易量
18%
37°C
$15 交易量
6%
38°C
$10 交易量
5%
39°C或更高
$0 交易量
3%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from Météo-France and international agencies points to stable high-pressure conditions and warm southerly flow favoring peak temperatures in the mid-30s Celsius for Paris on August 12. Ensemble forecasts and historical analogs for early-to-mid August under similar synoptic patterns support 34–36°C as the most probable range, with limited convective cooling expected. The market's heavy weighting toward 35°C reflects traders' assessment of current guidance stability two days ahead, while lower probabilities on 37°C or higher account for potential model shifts in timing or localized maxima before resolution. Updated runs and official bulletins remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$129結束日期
2026-08-12市場開放時間
Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from Météo-France and international agencies points to stable high-pressure conditions and warm southerly flow favoring peak temperatures in the mid-30s Celsius for Paris on August 12. Ensemble forecasts and historical analogs for early-to-mid August under similar synoptic patterns support 34–36°C as the most probable range, with limited convective cooling expected. The market's heavy weighting toward 35°C reflects traders' assessment of current guidance stability two days ahead, while lower probabilities on 37°C or higher account for potential model shifts in timing or localized maxima before resolution. Updated runs and official bulletins remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$129結束日期
2026-08-12市場開放時間
Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETRecent weather model consensus from Météo-France and international agencies points to stable high-pressure conditions and warm southerly flow favoring peak temperatures in the mid-30s Celsius for Paris on August 12. Ensemble forecasts and historical analogs for early-to-mid August under similar synoptic patterns support 34–36°C as the most probable range, with limited convective cooling expected. The market's heavy weighting toward 35°C reflects traders' assessment of current guidance stability two days ahead, while lower probabilities on 37°C or higher account for potential model shifts in timing or localized maxima before resolution. Updated runs and official bulletins remain the key near-term catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions