Beijing’s midsummer subtropical monsoon regime typically sustains daytime highs near or above 30–32 °C through strong solar heating and urban heat-island amplification, supporting the market’s leading 64.5 % probability for 32 °C or higher on 13 August. Recent numerical weather prediction runs from the China Meteorological Administration and global models show an approaching mid-latitude trough and associated frontal rainfall expected to increase cloud cover and evaporative cooling, shifting consensus forecasts toward 26–27 °C highs. Traders appear to weigh lingering model spread and the possibility of delayed or lighter precipitation against climatological norms, keeping elevated-temperature outcomes dominant while assigning meaningful weight to the 30–31 °C range. Updated model cycles and official guidance ahead of the event will be key catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月13日北京最高溫度？
8月13日北京最高溫度？
32°C或以上 60%
31°C 19%
30°C 12%
29°C 6%
最新
$13,449 交易量
最新
$13,449 交易量
2026-08-13
22°C或以下
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
3%
28°C
5%
29°C
6%
30°C
12%
31°C
19%
32°C或以上
60%
32°C或以上 60%
31°C 19%
30°C 12%
29°C 6%
最新
$13,449 交易量
最新
$13,449 交易量
2026-08-13
22°C或以下
$542 交易量
<1%
23°C
$659 交易量
<1%
24°C
$1,675 交易量
<1%
25°C
$1,127 交易量
1%
26°C
$1,158 交易量
2%
27°C
$1,100 交易量
3%
28°C
$1,478 交易量
5%
29°C
$1,250 交易量
6%
30°C
$844 交易量
12%
31°C
$1,651 交易量
19%
32°C或以上
$6,245 交易量
60%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Beijing’s midsummer subtropical monsoon regime typically sustains daytime highs near or above 30–32 °C through strong solar heating and urban heat-island amplification, supporting the market’s leading 64.5 % probability for 32 °C or higher on 13 August. Recent numerical weather prediction runs from the China Meteorological Administration and global models show an approaching mid-latitude trough and associated frontal rainfall expected to increase cloud cover and evaporative cooling, shifting consensus forecasts toward 26–27 °C highs. Traders appear to weigh lingering model spread and the possibility of delayed or lighter precipitation against climatological norms, keeping elevated-temperature outcomes dominant while assigning meaningful weight to the 30–31 °C range. Updated model cycles and official guidance ahead of the event will be key catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$13,449結束日期
2026-08-13市場開放時間
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Beijing’s midsummer subtropical monsoon regime typically sustains daytime highs near or above 30–32 °C through strong solar heating and urban heat-island amplification, supporting the market’s leading 64.5 % probability for 32 °C or higher on 13 August. Recent numerical weather prediction runs from the China Meteorological Administration and global models show an approaching mid-latitude trough and associated frontal rainfall expected to increase cloud cover and evaporative cooling, shifting consensus forecasts toward 26–27 °C highs. Traders appear to weigh lingering model spread and the possibility of delayed or lighter precipitation against climatological norms, keeping elevated-temperature outcomes dominant while assigning meaningful weight to the 30–31 °C range. Updated model cycles and official guidance ahead of the event will be key catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$13,449結束日期
2026-08-13市場開放時間
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETBeijing’s midsummer subtropical monsoon regime typically sustains daytime highs near or above 30–32 °C through strong solar heating and urban heat-island amplification, supporting the market’s leading 64.5 % probability for 32 °C or higher on 13 August. Recent numerical weather prediction runs from the China Meteorological Administration and global models show an approaching mid-latitude trough and associated frontal rainfall expected to increase cloud cover and evaporative cooling, shifting consensus forecasts toward 26–27 °C highs. Traders appear to weigh lingering model spread and the possibility of delayed or lighter precipitation against climatological norms, keeping elevated-temperature outcomes dominant while assigning meaningful weight to the 30–31 °C range. Updated model cycles and official guidance ahead of the event will be key catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions