**Persistent high-pressure dominance and coastal moderation shape the tight 33–35°C cluster for Incheon’s August 9 maximum.** South Korea remains under an intense heatwave, with KMA observations showing recent Incheon highs of 34°C on August 5 and 35°C on August 6 amid record national readings elsewhere. Medium-range guidance and ensemble spreads indicate continued subsidence and clear skies through the weekend, supporting afternoon peaks near or slightly above climatological August values (typically 29–31°C at the airport station), yet light easterly flow and marine influence limit further intensification. Model consensus highlights modest day-to-day variability from possible weak sea-breeze effects or isolated afternoon convection on August 8–9, which could trim the peak by 1–2°C or allow it to reach the upper end of the envelope depending on timing and coverage. This genuine forecast spread—rather than any single outlier run—explains why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to the central 33–35°C outcomes while assigning low single-digit odds to 36°C or higher. Updated KMA short-range guidance and next model cycles will refine these odds ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月9日首爾（仁川）最高溫度？
8月9日首爾（仁川）最高溫度？
34°C 34%
33°C 27%
35°C 19%
32°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-08-09
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
5%
32°C
7%
33°C
27%
34°C
34%
35°C
19%
36°C
6%
37°C
2%
38°C
2%
39°C or higher
1%
34°C 34%
33°C 27%
35°C 19%
32°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-08-09
29°C or below
$130 交易量
<1%
30°C
$46 交易量
1%
31°C
$69 交易量
5%
32°C
$20 交易量
7%
33°C
$144 交易量
27%
34°C
$527 交易量
34%
35°C
$146 交易量
19%
36°C
$139 交易量
6%
37°C
$74 交易量
2%
38°C
$9 交易量
2%
39°C or higher
$305 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent high-pressure dominance and coastal moderation shape the tight 33–35°C cluster for Incheon’s August 9 maximum.** South Korea remains under an intense heatwave, with KMA observations showing recent Incheon highs of 34°C on August 5 and 35°C on August 6 amid record national readings elsewhere. Medium-range guidance and ensemble spreads indicate continued subsidence and clear skies through the weekend, supporting afternoon peaks near or slightly above climatological August values (typically 29–31°C at the airport station), yet light easterly flow and marine influence limit further intensification.
Model consensus highlights modest day-to-day variability from possible weak sea-breeze effects or isolated afternoon convection on August 8–9, which could trim the peak by 1–2°C or allow it to reach the upper end of the envelope depending on timing and coverage. This genuine forecast spread—rather than any single outlier run—explains why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to the central 33–35°C outcomes while assigning low single-digit odds to 36°C or higher. Updated KMA short-range guidance and next model cycles will refine these odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$1,609結束日期
2026-08-09市場開放時間
Aug 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent high-pressure dominance and coastal moderation shape the tight 33–35°C cluster for Incheon’s August 9 maximum.** South Korea remains under an intense heatwave, with KMA observations showing recent Incheon highs of 34°C on August 5 and 35°C on August 6 amid record national readings elsewhere. Medium-range guidance and ensemble spreads indicate continued subsidence and clear skies through the weekend, supporting afternoon peaks near or slightly above climatological August values (typically 29–31°C at the airport station), yet light easterly flow and marine influence limit further intensification.
Model consensus highlights modest day-to-day variability from possible weak sea-breeze effects or isolated afternoon convection on August 8–9, which could trim the peak by 1–2°C or allow it to reach the upper end of the envelope depending on timing and coverage. This genuine forecast spread—rather than any single outlier run—explains why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to the central 33–35°C outcomes while assigning low single-digit odds to 36°C or higher. Updated KMA short-range guidance and next model cycles will refine these odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,609結束日期
2026-08-09市場開放時間
Aug 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ET**Persistent high-pressure dominance and coastal moderation shape the tight 33–35°C cluster for Incheon’s August 9 maximum.** South Korea remains under an intense heatwave, with KMA observations showing recent Incheon highs of 34°C on August 5 and 35°C on August 6 amid record national readings elsewhere. Medium-range guidance and ensemble spreads indicate continued subsidence and clear skies through the weekend, supporting afternoon peaks near or slightly above climatological August values (typically 29–31°C at the airport station), yet light easterly flow and marine influence limit further intensification. Model consensus highlights modest day-to-day variability from possible weak sea-breeze effects or isolated afternoon convection on August 8–9, which could trim the peak by 1–2°C or allow it to reach the upper end of the envelope depending on timing and coverage. This genuine forecast spread—rather than any single outlier run—explains why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to the central 33–35°C outcomes while assigning low single-digit odds to 36°C or higher. Updated KMA short-range guidance and next model cycles will refine these odds ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions