The southwest monsoon (habagat) currently influencing Luzon, including Metro Manila, is the dominant factor capping maximum temperatures through persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and thunderstorms that limit solar heating and enhance evaporative cooling. PAGASA outlooks for August 16 indicate a 25–33°C range with only 30% rain probability, consistent with typical wet-season highs near 30–31°C and historical monsoon moderation that rarely allows peaks above 32°C without clearer skies. Trader consensus around 29–31°C (over 85% combined implied probability) aligns with this atmospheric setup and model agreement on modest instability, while lower odds for 32°C+ reflect the low likelihood of monsoon weakening or subsidence allowing stronger insolation before any afternoon convection develops.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月16日馬尼拉的最高溫度？
8月16日馬尼拉的最高溫度？
30°C 38%
31°C 29%
29°C 21%
32°C 8%
最新
$11,692 交易量
最新
$11,692 交易量
2026-08-16
24°C或以下
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
6%
29°C
21%
30°C
38%
31°C
29%
32°C
8%
33°C
1%
34°C或以上
1%
30°C 38%
31°C 29%
29°C 21%
32°C 8%
最新
$11,692 交易量
最新
$11,692 交易量
2026-08-16
24°C或以下
$300 交易量
<1%
25°C
$322 交易量
<1%
26°C
$286 交易量
1%
27°C
$262 交易量
1%
28°C
$1,022 交易量
6%
29°C
$1,459 交易量
21%
30°C
$5,357 交易量
38%
31°C
$909 交易量
29%
32°C
$630 交易量
8%
33°C
$514 交易量
1%
34°C或以上
$631 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The southwest monsoon (habagat) currently influencing Luzon, including Metro Manila, is the dominant factor capping maximum temperatures through persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and thunderstorms that limit solar heating and enhance evaporative cooling. PAGASA outlooks for August 16 indicate a 25–33°C range with only 30% rain probability, consistent with typical wet-season highs near 30–31°C and historical monsoon moderation that rarely allows peaks above 32°C without clearer skies. Trader consensus around 29–31°C (over 85% combined implied probability) aligns with this atmospheric setup and model agreement on modest instability, while lower odds for 32°C+ reflect the low likelihood of monsoon weakening or subsidence allowing stronger insolation before any afternoon convection develops.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
交易量
$11,692結束日期
2026-08-16市場開放時間
Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The southwest monsoon (habagat) currently influencing Luzon, including Metro Manila, is the dominant factor capping maximum temperatures through persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and thunderstorms that limit solar heating and enhance evaporative cooling. PAGASA outlooks for August 16 indicate a 25–33°C range with only 30% rain probability, consistent with typical wet-season highs near 30–31°C and historical monsoon moderation that rarely allows peaks above 32°C without clearer skies. Trader consensus around 29–31°C (over 85% combined implied probability) aligns with this atmospheric setup and model agreement on modest instability, while lower odds for 32°C+ reflect the low likelihood of monsoon weakening or subsidence allowing stronger insolation before any afternoon convection develops.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$11,692結束日期
2026-08-16市場開放時間
Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETThe southwest monsoon (habagat) currently influencing Luzon, including Metro Manila, is the dominant factor capping maximum temperatures through persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and thunderstorms that limit solar heating and enhance evaporative cooling. PAGASA outlooks for August 16 indicate a 25–33°C range with only 30% rain probability, consistent with typical wet-season highs near 30–31°C and historical monsoon moderation that rarely allows peaks above 32°C without clearer skies. Trader consensus around 29–31°C (over 85% combined implied probability) aligns with this atmospheric setup and model agreement on modest instability, while lower odds for 32°C+ reflect the low likelihood of monsoon weakening or subsidence allowing stronger insolation before any afternoon convection develops.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions