Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 16 position a maximum near 29°C as the most probable outcome, aligning with the market's leading 41.5% implied probability on that threshold. Persistent Pacific high pressure supports typical mid-August warmth across the Kanto region, with urban heat island effects and high humidity amplifying daytime peaks, while model guidance shows limited day-to-day variability. Historical baselines place normal highs around 31°C, yet current runs favor slightly cooler readings near 28–30°C amid stable steering patterns. Updated JMA briefings and short-range model consensus expected over the next 24 hours represent the key data release that could shift trader positioning on these narrow temperature bands.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月16日東京氣溫最高？
8月16日東京氣溫最高？
29°C 42%
28°C 26%
30°C 21%
31°C 5%
最新
$22,257 交易量
最新
$22,257 交易量
2026-08-16
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
3%
28°C
26%
29°C
42%
30°C
21%
31°C
5%
32°C
2%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 42%
28°C 26%
30°C 21%
31°C 5%
最新
$22,257 交易量
最新
$22,257 交易量
2026-08-16
24°C or below
$1,238 交易量
<1%
25°C
$517 交易量
<1%
26°C
$1,211 交易量
1%
27°C
$3,987 交易量
3%
28°C
$1,858 交易量
26%
29°C
$2,489 交易量
42%
30°C
$3,841 交易量
21%
31°C
$1,428 交易量
5%
32°C
$2,849 交易量
2%
33°C
$1,863 交易量
1%
34°C or higher
$976 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 16 position a maximum near 29°C as the most probable outcome, aligning with the market's leading 41.5% implied probability on that threshold. Persistent Pacific high pressure supports typical mid-August warmth across the Kanto region, with urban heat island effects and high humidity amplifying daytime peaks, while model guidance shows limited day-to-day variability. Historical baselines place normal highs around 31°C, yet current runs favor slightly cooler readings near 28–30°C amid stable steering patterns. Updated JMA briefings and short-range model consensus expected over the next 24 hours represent the key data release that could shift trader positioning on these narrow temperature bands.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$22,257結束日期
2026-08-16市場開放時間
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 16 position a maximum near 29°C as the most probable outcome, aligning with the market's leading 41.5% implied probability on that threshold. Persistent Pacific high pressure supports typical mid-August warmth across the Kanto region, with urban heat island effects and high humidity amplifying daytime peaks, while model guidance shows limited day-to-day variability. Historical baselines place normal highs around 31°C, yet current runs favor slightly cooler readings near 28–30°C amid stable steering patterns. Updated JMA briefings and short-range model consensus expected over the next 24 hours represent the key data release that could shift trader positioning on these narrow temperature bands.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$22,257結束日期
2026-08-16市場開放時間
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRecent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 16 position a maximum near 29°C as the most probable outcome, aligning with the market's leading 41.5% implied probability on that threshold. Persistent Pacific high pressure supports typical mid-August warmth across the Kanto region, with urban heat island effects and high humidity amplifying daytime peaks, while model guidance shows limited day-to-day variability. Historical baselines place normal highs around 31°C, yet current runs favor slightly cooler readings near 28–30°C amid stable steering patterns. Updated JMA briefings and short-range model consensus expected over the next 24 hours represent the key data release that could shift trader positioning on these narrow temperature bands.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions