**National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs support a minimum temperature of 70-71°F in New York City on August 16, 2026, with traders assigning near-certainty to this narrow band.** Overnight conditions feature seasonable humidity, light southerly flow, and increasing cloud cover that limits radiational cooling, keeping the low from dropping into the upper 60s. This aligns with August climatology for the region, where average lows at LaGuardia and Central Park stations range 67–72°F. The 99% market-implied probability reflects strong consensus on official observations from primary reporting stations. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected clear-sky window or stronger northerly advection not currently indicated in guidance, which could shave a degree or two lower before dawn.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月16日紐約市的最低溫度？
8月16日紐約市的最低溫度？
70-71°F 99%
68-69°F 1.2%
64-65°F <1%
66-67°F <1%
$11,628 交易量
$11,628 交易量
2026-08-16
華氏63度或以下
<1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
99%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82°F或以上
<1%
70-71°F 99%
68-69°F 1.2%
64-65°F <1%
66-67°F <1%
$11,628 交易量
$11,628 交易量
2026-08-16
華氏63度或以下
$432 交易量
<1%
64-65°F
$457 交易量
1%
66-67°F
$491 交易量
1%
68-69°F
$589 交易量
1%
70-71°F
$1,967 交易量
99%
72-73°F
$3,104 交易量
<1%
74-75°F
$2,535 交易量
<1%
76-77°F
$724 交易量
<1%
78-79°F
$667 交易量
<1%
80-81°F
$381 交易量
<1%
82°F或以上
$281 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs support a minimum temperature of 70-71°F in New York City on August 16, 2026, with traders assigning near-certainty to this narrow band.** Overnight conditions feature seasonable humidity, light southerly flow, and increasing cloud cover that limits radiational cooling, keeping the low from dropping into the upper 60s. This aligns with August climatology for the region, where average lows at LaGuardia and Central Park stations range 67–72°F. The 99% market-implied probability reflects strong consensus on official observations from primary reporting stations. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected clear-sky window or stronger northerly advection not currently indicated in guidance, which could shave a degree or two lower before dawn.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 14, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
交易量
$11,628結束日期
2026-08-16市場開放時間
Aug 14, 2026, 9:28 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs support a minimum temperature of 70-71°F in New York City on August 16, 2026, with traders assigning near-certainty to this narrow band.** Overnight conditions feature seasonable humidity, light southerly flow, and increasing cloud cover that limits radiational cooling, keeping the low from dropping into the upper 60s. This aligns with August climatology for the region, where average lows at LaGuardia and Central Park stations range 67–72°F. The 99% market-implied probability reflects strong consensus on official observations from primary reporting stations. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected clear-sky window or stronger northerly advection not currently indicated in guidance, which could shave a degree or two lower before dawn.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$11,628結束日期
2026-08-16市場開放時間
Aug 14, 2026, 9:28 PM ET**National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs support a minimum temperature of 70-71°F in New York City on August 16, 2026, with traders assigning near-certainty to this narrow band.** Overnight conditions feature seasonable humidity, light southerly flow, and increasing cloud cover that limits radiational cooling, keeping the low from dropping into the upper 60s. This aligns with August climatology for the region, where average lows at LaGuardia and Central Park stations range 67–72°F. The 99% market-implied probability reflects strong consensus on official observations from primary reporting stations. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected clear-sky window or stronger northerly advection not currently indicated in guidance, which could shave a degree or two lower before dawn.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions