**Model consensus from European and global ensembles points to a maximum of 33–34°C in central Madrid on August 16, reflecting the tight 41.5%/38.5% split between those two outcomes.** Persistent high pressure over the Iberian Peninsula favors clear skies and strong daytime insolation, while light northeasterly flow limits cooling from the Atlantic; the urban heat island adds 1–2°C relative to rural stations. Recent model runs show modest spread driven by small differences in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any weak trough, with 36°C or higher remaining low-probability unless subsidence strengthens further. Historical mid-August baselines average near 32°C, so current conditions sit slightly above normal but short of peak heatwave thresholds. Final AEMET and ECMWF updates on August 15 will narrow the remaining uncertainty before the market resolves.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月16日馬德裏氣溫最高？
8月16日馬德裏氣溫最高？
34°C 42%
35°C 39%
36°C 10%
33°C 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-16
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
3%
33°C
8%
34°C
42%
35°C
39%
36°C
10%
37°C or higher
2%
34°C 42%
35°C 39%
36°C 10%
33°C 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-16
27°C or below
$309 交易量
<1%
28°C
$153 交易量
<1%
29°C
$122 交易量
<1%
30°C
$33 交易量
<1%
31°C
$29 交易量
<1%
32°C
$69 交易量
3%
33°C
$269 交易量
8%
34°C
$622 交易量
42%
35°C
$2,353 交易量
39%
36°C
$358 交易量
10%
37°C or higher
$103 交易量
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Model consensus from European and global ensembles points to a maximum of 33–34°C in central Madrid on August 16, reflecting the tight 41.5%/38.5% split between those two outcomes.** Persistent high pressure over the Iberian Peninsula favors clear skies and strong daytime insolation, while light northeasterly flow limits cooling from the Atlantic; the urban heat island adds 1–2°C relative to rural stations. Recent model runs show modest spread driven by small differences in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any weak trough, with 36°C or higher remaining low-probability unless subsidence strengthens further. Historical mid-August baselines average near 32°C, so current conditions sit slightly above normal but short of peak heatwave thresholds. Final AEMET and ECMWF updates on August 15 will narrow the remaining uncertainty before the market resolves.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$4,421結束日期
2026-08-16市場開放時間
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Model consensus from European and global ensembles points to a maximum of 33–34°C in central Madrid on August 16, reflecting the tight 41.5%/38.5% split between those two outcomes.** Persistent high pressure over the Iberian Peninsula favors clear skies and strong daytime insolation, while light northeasterly flow limits cooling from the Atlantic; the urban heat island adds 1–2°C relative to rural stations. Recent model runs show modest spread driven by small differences in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any weak trough, with 36°C or higher remaining low-probability unless subsidence strengthens further. Historical mid-August baselines average near 32°C, so current conditions sit slightly above normal but short of peak heatwave thresholds. Final AEMET and ECMWF updates on August 15 will narrow the remaining uncertainty before the market resolves.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$4,421結束日期
2026-08-16市場開放時間
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET**Model consensus from European and global ensembles points to a maximum of 33–34°C in central Madrid on August 16, reflecting the tight 41.5%/38.5% split between those two outcomes.** Persistent high pressure over the Iberian Peninsula favors clear skies and strong daytime insolation, while light northeasterly flow limits cooling from the Atlantic; the urban heat island adds 1–2°C relative to rural stations. Recent model runs show modest spread driven by small differences in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any weak trough, with 36°C or higher remaining low-probability unless subsidence strengthens further. Historical mid-August baselines average near 32°C, so current conditions sit slightly above normal but short of peak heatwave thresholds. Final AEMET and ECMWF updates on August 15 will narrow the remaining uncertainty before the market resolves.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions