Recent forecast model consensus from agencies including the UK Met Office has positioned 18°C as the expected overnight minimum for London on August 16, reflecting stable high-pressure conditions, light winds, and clear to partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with observed trends where temperatures have held above seasonal averages near 13–14°C, with ensemble runs showing minimal variance around this threshold. Trader positioning at near-100% implied probability on 18°C captures this data-driven convergence ahead of official verification. A realistic shift would require late-model adjustments from unexpected frontal passage or stronger nocturnal cooling, though current atmospheric stability makes such outcomes low-probability before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月16日倫敦的最低溫度？
8月16日倫敦的最低溫度？
18°C 100.0%
14°C或以下 <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$20,028 交易量
$20,028 交易量
2026-08-16
14°C或以下
否
15°C
否
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C
是
19°C
否
20°C
否
21°C
否
22°C
否
23°C
否
24°C或以上
否
18°C 100.0%
14°C或以下 <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$20,028 交易量
$20,028 交易量
2026-08-16
14°C或以下
$1,219 交易量
否
15°C
$828 交易量
否
16°C
$3,656 交易量
否
17°C
$5,510 交易量
否
18°C
$4,846 交易量
是
19°C
$1,311 交易量
否
20°C
$569 交易量
否
21°C
$1,548 交易量
否
22°C
$177 交易量
否
23°C
$182 交易量
否
24°C或以上
$182 交易量
否
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from agencies including the UK Met Office has positioned 18°C as the expected overnight minimum for London on August 16, reflecting stable high-pressure conditions, light winds, and clear to partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with observed trends where temperatures have held above seasonal averages near 13–14°C, with ensemble runs showing minimal variance around this threshold. Trader positioning at near-100% implied probability on 18°C captures this data-driven convergence ahead of official verification. A realistic shift would require late-model adjustments from unexpected frontal passage or stronger nocturnal cooling, though current atmospheric stability makes such outcomes low-probability before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 14, 2026, 1:28 AM ET
交易量
$20,028結束日期
2026-08-16市場開放時間
Aug 14, 2026, 1:28 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from agencies including the UK Met Office has positioned 18°C as the expected overnight minimum for London on August 16, reflecting stable high-pressure conditions, light winds, and clear to partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with observed trends where temperatures have held above seasonal averages near 13–14°C, with ensemble runs showing minimal variance around this threshold. Trader positioning at near-100% implied probability on 18°C captures this data-driven convergence ahead of official verification. A realistic shift would require late-model adjustments from unexpected frontal passage or stronger nocturnal cooling, though current atmospheric stability makes such outcomes low-probability before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$20,028結束日期
2026-08-16市場開放時間
Aug 14, 2026, 1:28 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Recent forecast model consensus from agencies including the UK Met Office has positioned 18°C as the expected overnight minimum for London on August 16, reflecting stable high-pressure conditions, light winds, and clear to partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with observed trends where temperatures have held above seasonal averages near 13–14°C, with ensemble runs showing minimal variance around this threshold. Trader positioning at near-100% implied probability on 18°C captures this data-driven convergence ahead of official verification. A realistic shift would require late-model adjustments from unexpected frontal passage or stronger nocturnal cooling, though current atmospheric stability makes such outcomes low-probability before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions