Traders assign the highest implied probability to a 17°C low in London on August 19, driven by the latest Met Office ensemble forecasts showing typical late-summer overnight radiative cooling under mixed cloud cover and light winds over southern England. With 16°C and 17°C outcomes closely matched at roughly 35–40 percent each, market-implied odds reflect genuine uncertainty in the precise minimum, which hinges on small variations in cloud thickness, dew point, and urban heat-island retention that modulate how much heat escapes after sunset. Official model guidance notes the potential for minor shifts from any weak frontal influence or clearer spells, with resolution depending on verified observations at standard London stations. Further model runs and short-range updates will provide additional clarity before the period ends.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月19日倫敦的最低溫度？
8月19日倫敦的最低溫度？
17°C 41%
16°C 35%
18°C 14%
14°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-08-19
11°C或以下
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
4%
14°C
11%
15°C
8%
16°C
35%
17°C
41%
18°C
14%
19°C
5%
20°C
1%
21°C或以上
<1%
17°C 41%
16°C 35%
18°C 14%
14°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-08-19
11°C或以下
$5 交易量
<1%
12°C
$5 交易量
<1%
13°C
$5 交易量
4%
14°C
$5 交易量
11%
15°C
$0 交易量
8%
16°C
$254 交易量
35%
17°C
$429 交易量
41%
18°C
$29 交易量
14%
19°C
$4 交易量
5%
20°C
$5 交易量
1%
21°C或以上
$5 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probability to a 17°C low in London on August 19, driven by the latest Met Office ensemble forecasts showing typical late-summer overnight radiative cooling under mixed cloud cover and light winds over southern England. With 16°C and 17°C outcomes closely matched at roughly 35–40 percent each, market-implied odds reflect genuine uncertainty in the precise minimum, which hinges on small variations in cloud thickness, dew point, and urban heat-island retention that modulate how much heat escapes after sunset. Official model guidance notes the potential for minor shifts from any weak frontal influence or clearer spells, with resolution depending on verified observations at standard London stations. Further model runs and short-range updates will provide additional clarity before the period ends.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 17, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
交易量
$746結束日期
2026-08-19市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 12:28 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probability to a 17°C low in London on August 19, driven by the latest Met Office ensemble forecasts showing typical late-summer overnight radiative cooling under mixed cloud cover and light winds over southern England. With 16°C and 17°C outcomes closely matched at roughly 35–40 percent each, market-implied odds reflect genuine uncertainty in the precise minimum, which hinges on small variations in cloud thickness, dew point, and urban heat-island retention that modulate how much heat escapes after sunset. Official model guidance notes the potential for minor shifts from any weak frontal influence or clearer spells, with resolution depending on verified observations at standard London stations. Further model runs and short-range updates will provide additional clarity before the period ends.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$746結束日期
2026-08-19市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 12:28 AM ETTraders assign the highest implied probability to a 17°C low in London on August 19, driven by the latest Met Office ensemble forecasts showing typical late-summer overnight radiative cooling under mixed cloud cover and light winds over southern England. With 16°C and 17°C outcomes closely matched at roughly 35–40 percent each, market-implied odds reflect genuine uncertainty in the precise minimum, which hinges on small variations in cloud thickness, dew point, and urban heat-island retention that modulate how much heat escapes after sunset. Official model guidance notes the potential for minor shifts from any weak frontal influence or clearer spells, with resolution depending on verified observations at standard London stations. Further model runs and short-range updates will provide additional clarity before the period ends.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions