Latest Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converge on a London maximum of 23–25 °C for 19 August, driven by light southerly flow, modest warm-air advection, and variable cloud cover that limits daytime heating. Trader consensus at 44 % for 24 °C and 38 % for 25 °C reflects this tight spread, with small differences hinging on the timing and extent of any breaks in cloud that could allow extra insolation or urban heat-island amplification within central London. Historical late-August climatology near 21–22 °C keeps higher thresholds below 5 % probability, while official resolution will depend on the highest verified reading from designated stations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月19日倫敦的最高溫度?
24°C 44%
25°C 39%
23°C 11%
26°C 5%
$50,718 交易量
$50,718 交易量
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
3%
23°C
11%
24°C
44%
25°C
39%
26°C
5%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
24°C 44%
25°C 39%
23°C 11%
26°C 5%
$50,718 交易量
$50,718 交易量
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
3%
23°C
11%
24°C
44%
25°C
39%
26°C
5%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間: Aug 17, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Latest Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converge on a London maximum of 23–25 °C for 19 August, driven by light southerly flow, modest warm-air advection, and variable cloud cover that limits daytime heating. Trader consensus at 44 % for 24 °C and 38 % for 25 °C reflects this tight spread, with small differences hinging on the timing and extent of any breaks in cloud that could allow extra insolation or urban heat-island amplification within central London. Historical late-August climatology near 21–22 °C keeps higher thresholds below 5 % probability, while official resolution will depend on the highest verified reading from designated stations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions