Traders favor 29–30°C outcomes for Tokyo’s August 17 high because short-term JMA and ensemble forecasts converge on a daytime maximum near 31°C under a strong Pacific high, typical mid-August climatology, and urban heat-island effects that add 1–2°C to central observations. Persistent El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C, have reinforced above-normal temperatures across Honshu this summer, consistent with JMA’s seasonal outlook. Recent model runs show limited day-to-day variability and only modest thunderstorm risk that could cap the peak, keeping implied probabilities highest for the 29–30°C bin while assigning lower weight to 31°C or above. Official JMA station data and updated model guidance tomorrow morning will determine the final recorded value.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月17日東京氣溫最高？
8月17日東京氣溫最高？
30°C 44%
29°C 28%
31°C 15%
28°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-08-17
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
3%
28°C
7%
29°C
28%
30°C
44%
31°C
15%
32°C
3%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
1%
30°C 44%
29°C 28%
31°C 15%
28°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-08-17
24°C or below
$1,197 交易量
<1%
25°C
$815 交易量
<1%
26°C
$248 交易量
1%
27°C
$599 交易量
3%
28°C
$1,284 交易量
7%
29°C
$1,245 交易量
28%
30°C
$1,103 交易量
44%
31°C
$431 交易量
15%
32°C
$314 交易量
3%
33°C
$234 交易量
1%
34°C or higher
$408 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders favor 29–30°C outcomes for Tokyo’s August 17 high because short-term JMA and ensemble forecasts converge on a daytime maximum near 31°C under a strong Pacific high, typical mid-August climatology, and urban heat-island effects that add 1–2°C to central observations. Persistent El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C, have reinforced above-normal temperatures across Honshu this summer, consistent with JMA’s seasonal outlook. Recent model runs show limited day-to-day variability and only modest thunderstorm risk that could cap the peak, keeping implied probabilities highest for the 29–30°C bin while assigning lower weight to 31°C or above. Official JMA station data and updated model guidance tomorrow morning will determine the final recorded value.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 15, 2026, 4:05 PM ET
交易量
$7,880結束日期
2026-08-17市場開放時間
Aug 15, 2026, 4:05 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders favor 29–30°C outcomes for Tokyo’s August 17 high because short-term JMA and ensemble forecasts converge on a daytime maximum near 31°C under a strong Pacific high, typical mid-August climatology, and urban heat-island effects that add 1–2°C to central observations. Persistent El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C, have reinforced above-normal temperatures across Honshu this summer, consistent with JMA’s seasonal outlook. Recent model runs show limited day-to-day variability and only modest thunderstorm risk that could cap the peak, keeping implied probabilities highest for the 29–30°C bin while assigning lower weight to 31°C or above. Official JMA station data and updated model guidance tomorrow morning will determine the final recorded value.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$7,880結束日期
2026-08-17市場開放時間
Aug 15, 2026, 4:05 PM ETTraders favor 29–30°C outcomes for Tokyo’s August 17 high because short-term JMA and ensemble forecasts converge on a daytime maximum near 31°C under a strong Pacific high, typical mid-August climatology, and urban heat-island effects that add 1–2°C to central observations. Persistent El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C, have reinforced above-normal temperatures across Honshu this summer, consistent with JMA’s seasonal outlook. Recent model runs show limited day-to-day variability and only modest thunderstorm risk that could cap the peak, keeping implied probabilities highest for the 29–30°C bin while assigning lower weight to 31°C or above. Official JMA station data and updated model guidance tomorrow morning will determine the final recorded value.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions