Recent Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts, showing high confidence in an overnight minimum of 17–19 °C for London on August 18, form the core driver of trader consensus, with 18 °C holding the highest implied probability at 48 %. Model spread, subtle differences in boundary-layer cooling rates, and London’s urban heat-island effect— which typically limits radiative losses in central areas—primarily differentiate the tightly matched 18 °C and 19 °C outcomes from the lower-probability 17 °C bin. Stable high-pressure conditions and limited cloud cover overnight have kept guidance steady over the past 48 hours, while any late frontal shift or measurement-site variation could still nudge the recorded low.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月18日倫敦的最低溫度？
8月18日倫敦的最低溫度？
18°C 48%
19°C 41%
20°C 8%
17°C 4%
最新
最新
2026-08-18
14°C或以下
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
3%
17°C
4%
18°C
48%
19°C
41%
20°C
8%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C或以上
<1%
18°C 48%
19°C 41%
20°C 8%
17°C 4%
最新
最新
2026-08-18
14°C或以下
$143 交易量
<1%
15°C
$315 交易量
<1%
16°C
$580 交易量
3%
17°C
$1,364 交易量
4%
18°C
$1,516 交易量
48%
19°C
$1,317 交易量
41%
20°C
$478 交易量
8%
21°C
$234 交易量
<1%
22°C
$222 交易量
<1%
23°C
$192 交易量
<1%
24°C或以上
$182 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts, showing high confidence in an overnight minimum of 17–19 °C for London on August 18, form the core driver of trader consensus, with 18 °C holding the highest implied probability at 48 %. Model spread, subtle differences in boundary-layer cooling rates, and London’s urban heat-island effect— which typically limits radiative losses in central areas—primarily differentiate the tightly matched 18 °C and 19 °C outcomes from the lower-probability 17 °C bin. Stable high-pressure conditions and limited cloud cover overnight have kept guidance steady over the past 48 hours, while any late frontal shift or measurement-site variation could still nudge the recorded low.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
交易量
$6,543結束日期
2026-08-18市場開放時間
Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts, showing high confidence in an overnight minimum of 17–19 °C for London on August 18, form the core driver of trader consensus, with 18 °C holding the highest implied probability at 48 %. Model spread, subtle differences in boundary-layer cooling rates, and London’s urban heat-island effect— which typically limits radiative losses in central areas—primarily differentiate the tightly matched 18 °C and 19 °C outcomes from the lower-probability 17 °C bin. Stable high-pressure conditions and limited cloud cover overnight have kept guidance steady over the past 48 hours, while any late frontal shift or measurement-site variation could still nudge the recorded low.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$6,543結束日期
2026-08-18市場開放時間
Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ETRecent Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts, showing high confidence in an overnight minimum of 17–19 °C for London on August 18, form the core driver of trader consensus, with 18 °C holding the highest implied probability at 48 %. Model spread, subtle differences in boundary-layer cooling rates, and London’s urban heat-island effect— which typically limits radiative losses in central areas—primarily differentiate the tightly matched 18 °C and 19 °C outcomes from the lower-probability 17 °C bin. Stable high-pressure conditions and limited cloud cover overnight have kept guidance steady over the past 48 hours, while any late frontal shift or measurement-site variation could still nudge the recorded low.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions