The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ events underpins the 93.3% market-implied probability of no such earthquake before 2027. USGS historical catalogs show only five instrumentally recorded cases since 1900, with the most recent being the 2011 Tōhoku megathrust rupture; global recurrence intervals typically span 25–50 years or longer based on paleoseismic data from major subduction zones. Ongoing monitoring through mid-2026 reveals only lower-magnitude activity, such as recent M7–8.8 sequences, without signs of full-margin stress accumulation that could trigger a threshold event in the brief remaining window. While an unforeseen rupture in zones like Cascadia remains theoretically possible, current seismic patterns and the compressed timeline sustain strong trader consensus against it.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
7% 機率
$273,789 交易量
$273,789 交易量
2026-12-31
是
7% 機率
$273,789 交易量
$273,789 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ events underpins the 93.3% market-implied probability of no such earthquake before 2027. USGS historical catalogs show only five instrumentally recorded cases since 1900, with the most recent being the 2011 Tōhoku megathrust rupture; global recurrence intervals typically span 25–50 years or longer based on paleoseismic data from major subduction zones. Ongoing monitoring through mid-2026 reveals only lower-magnitude activity, such as recent M7–8.8 sequences, without signs of full-margin stress accumulation that could trigger a threshold event in the brief remaining window. While an unforeseen rupture in zones like Cascadia remains theoretically possible, current seismic patterns and the compressed timeline sustain strong trader consensus against it.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市場開放時間： Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
交易量
$273,789結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ events underpins the 93.3% market-implied probability of no such earthquake before 2027. USGS historical catalogs show only five instrumentally recorded cases since 1900, with the most recent being the 2011 Tōhoku megathrust rupture; global recurrence intervals typically span 25–50 years or longer based on paleoseismic data from major subduction zones. Ongoing monitoring through mid-2026 reveals only lower-magnitude activity, such as recent M7–8.8 sequences, without signs of full-margin stress accumulation that could trigger a threshold event in the brief remaining window. While an unforeseen rupture in zones like Cascadia remains theoretically possible, current seismic patterns and the compressed timeline sustain strong trader consensus against it.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$273,789結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ events underpins the 93.3% market-implied probability of no such earthquake before 2027. USGS historical catalogs show only five instrumentally recorded cases since 1900, with the most recent being the 2011 Tōhoku megathrust rupture; global recurrence intervals typically span 25–50 years or longer based on paleoseismic data from major subduction zones. Ongoing monitoring through mid-2026 reveals only lower-magnitude activity, such as recent M7–8.8 sequences, without signs of full-margin stress accumulation that could trigger a threshold event in the brief remaining window. While an unforeseen rupture in zones like Cascadia remains theoretically possible, current seismic patterns and the compressed timeline sustain strong trader consensus against it.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions