The near-certain trader consensus on “No” at 99.2% reflects the established scientific consensus that magnitude 10.0 earthquakes cannot occur on Earth. USGS analyses show earthquake magnitude scales directly with fault rupture length, and no known fault—or plausible combination of faults—approaches the roughly 10,000-kilometer scale required. The largest recorded event reached only 9.5 in Chile in 1960 along a ~1,000-kilometer subduction zone. With roughly 17 months remaining before 2027, ongoing USGS global monitoring and moment-magnitude calculations continue to confirm the physical upper bound near 9.5–9.6. Only an unprecedented revision of tectonic models or measurement methodology could alter this outlook.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
<1% 機率
$789,825 交易量
$789,825 交易量
2026-12-31
是
<1% 機率
$789,825 交易量
$789,825 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The near-certain trader consensus on “No” at 99.2% reflects the established scientific consensus that magnitude 10.0 earthquakes cannot occur on Earth. USGS analyses show earthquake magnitude scales directly with fault rupture length, and no known fault—or plausible combination of faults—approaches the roughly 10,000-kilometer scale required. The largest recorded event reached only 9.5 in Chile in 1960 along a ~1,000-kilometer subduction zone. With roughly 17 months remaining before 2027, ongoing USGS global monitoring and moment-magnitude calculations continue to confirm the physical upper bound near 9.5–9.6. Only an unprecedented revision of tectonic models or measurement methodology could alter this outlook.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市場開放時間： Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
交易量
$789,825結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The near-certain trader consensus on “No” at 99.2% reflects the established scientific consensus that magnitude 10.0 earthquakes cannot occur on Earth. USGS analyses show earthquake magnitude scales directly with fault rupture length, and no known fault—or plausible combination of faults—approaches the roughly 10,000-kilometer scale required. The largest recorded event reached only 9.5 in Chile in 1960 along a ~1,000-kilometer subduction zone. With roughly 17 months remaining before 2027, ongoing USGS global monitoring and moment-magnitude calculations continue to confirm the physical upper bound near 9.5–9.6. Only an unprecedented revision of tectonic models or measurement methodology could alter this outlook.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$789,825結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The near-certain trader consensus on “No” at 99.2% reflects the established scientific consensus that magnitude 10.0 earthquakes cannot occur on Earth. USGS analyses show earthquake magnitude scales directly with fault rupture length, and no known fault—or plausible combination of faults—approaches the roughly 10,000-kilometer scale required. The largest recorded event reached only 9.5 in Chile in 1960 along a ~1,000-kilometer subduction zone. With roughly 17 months remaining before 2027, ongoing USGS global monitoring and moment-magnitude calculations continue to confirm the physical upper bound near 9.5–9.6. Only an unprecedented revision of tectonic models or measurement methodology could alter this outlook.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions