USGS monitoring confirms that earthquakes reaching magnitude 10.0 or higher remain physically impossible on Earth, as no fault segment extends far enough—typically capped at roughly 1,000–1,200 km in major subduction zones—to produce the necessary rupture area. This assessment underpins the 94.6% market-implied probability for “No” before 2027, reinforced by the historical record peaking at 9.5 during the 1960 Chile event and the absence of any magnitude 9+ quake since 2011. Global seismic networks provide continuous, real-time detection with no precursor signals indicating an unprecedented full-length rupture. While theoretical models allow for extreme variability in fault behavior, the short remaining timeframe and established tectonic limits keep the odds heavily weighted against such an outcome.