Trader consensus favors "No" at 70.5% implied probability for a U.S. AI safety bill enactment before 2027, driven by stalled federal legislation despite recent introductions like the Protect American AI Act (H.R. 8037, March 2026) and bipartisan measures such as the CREATE AI Act (April 2026 reintroduction), all referred to committees without floor votes or advancement. The Trump administration's March 2026 National AI Legislative Framework prioritizes innovation, national security, and light-touch preemption of state laws over stringent safety mandates, facing headwinds in a midterm election year with Congress focused on appropriations and debt ceiling debates. State-level AI regulations in California and Colorado proliferate, but no comprehensive federal bill has progressed amid partisan divides on regulatory scope, leaving enactment unlikely in the lame-duck session.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$98,190 交易量
$98,190 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$98,190 交易量
$98,190 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus favors "No" at 70.5% implied probability for a U.S. AI safety bill enactment before 2027, driven by stalled federal legislation despite recent introductions like the Protect American AI Act (H.R. 8037, March 2026) and bipartisan measures such as the CREATE AI Act (April 2026 reintroduction), all referred to committees without floor votes or advancement. The Trump administration's March 2026 National AI Legislative Framework prioritizes innovation, national security, and light-touch preemption of state laws over stringent safety mandates, facing headwinds in a midterm election year with Congress focused on appropriations and debt ceiling debates. State-level AI regulations in California and Colorado proliferate, but no comprehensive federal bill has progressed amid partisan divides on regulatory scope, leaving enactment unlikely in the lame-duck session.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
交易量
$98,190結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus favors "No" at 70.5% implied probability for a U.S. AI safety bill enactment before 2027, driven by stalled federal legislation despite recent introductions like the Protect American AI Act (H.R. 8037, March 2026) and bipartisan measures such as the CREATE AI Act (April 2026 reintroduction), all referred to committees without floor votes or advancement. The Trump administration's March 2026 National AI Legislative Framework prioritizes innovation, national security, and light-touch preemption of state laws over stringent safety mandates, facing headwinds in a midterm election year with Congress focused on appropriations and debt ceiling debates. State-level AI regulations in California and Colorado proliferate, but no comprehensive federal bill has progressed amid partisan divides on regulatory scope, leaving enactment unlikely in the lame-duck session.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$98,190結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 70.5% implied probability for a U.S. AI safety bill enactment before 2027, driven by stalled federal legislation despite recent introductions like the Protect American AI Act (H.R. 8037, March 2026) and bipartisan measures such as the CREATE AI Act (April 2026 reintroduction), all referred to committees without floor votes or advancement. The Trump administration's March 2026 National AI Legislative Framework prioritizes innovation, national security, and light-touch preemption of state laws over stringent safety mandates, facing headwinds in a midterm election year with Congress focused on appropriations and debt ceiling debates. State-level AI regulations in California and Colorado proliferate, but no comprehensive federal bill has progressed amid partisan divides on regulatory scope, leaving enactment unlikely in the lame-duck session.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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