**Traders assign an 87.5% probability to “No” because Congress has introduced dozens of AI-related measures in the 119th session yet none have advanced to enactment.** Proposals such as the AI Accountability Act, CREATE AI Act, and discussion drafts of broader frameworks remain at the introduced or committee stage, consistent with the 118th Congress pattern of more than 150 bills yielding zero final laws. The current administration’s executive actions emphasize a “minimally burdensome” national framework and preemption of conflicting state rules, while legislative focus has centered on narrower topics like child safety, deepfakes, and nonconsensual imagery rather than comprehensive safety mandates. With midterm pressures, partisan divides over regulatory scope, and accelerating state-level activity filling the gap, the window for passage of a major federal AI safety bill by the end of 2026 appears narrow.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
13% 機率
$101,400 交易量
$101,400 交易量
2026-12-31
是
13% 機率
$101,400 交易量
$101,400 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Traders assign an 87.5% probability to “No” because Congress has introduced dozens of AI-related measures in the 119th session yet none have advanced to enactment.** Proposals such as the AI Accountability Act, CREATE AI Act, and discussion drafts of broader frameworks remain at the introduced or committee stage, consistent with the 118th Congress pattern of more than 150 bills yielding zero final laws.
The current administration’s executive actions emphasize a “minimally burdensome” national framework and preemption of conflicting state rules, while legislative focus has centered on narrower topics like child safety, deepfakes, and nonconsensual imagery rather than comprehensive safety mandates. With midterm pressures, partisan divides over regulatory scope, and accelerating state-level activity filling the gap, the window for passage of a major federal AI safety bill by the end of 2026 appears narrow.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
交易量
$101,400結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Traders assign an 87.5% probability to “No” because Congress has introduced dozens of AI-related measures in the 119th session yet none have advanced to enactment.** Proposals such as the AI Accountability Act, CREATE AI Act, and discussion drafts of broader frameworks remain at the introduced or committee stage, consistent with the 118th Congress pattern of more than 150 bills yielding zero final laws.
The current administration’s executive actions emphasize a “minimally burdensome” national framework and preemption of conflicting state rules, while legislative focus has centered on narrower topics like child safety, deepfakes, and nonconsensual imagery rather than comprehensive safety mandates. With midterm pressures, partisan divides over regulatory scope, and accelerating state-level activity filling the gap, the window for passage of a major federal AI safety bill by the end of 2026 appears narrow.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$101,400結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 87.5% probability to “No” because Congress has introduced dozens of AI-related measures in the 119th session yet none have advanced to enactment.** Proposals such as the AI Accountability Act, CREATE AI Act, and discussion drafts of broader frameworks remain at the introduced or committee stage, consistent with the 118th Congress pattern of more than 150 bills yielding zero final laws. The current administration’s executive actions emphasize a “minimally burdensome” national framework and preemption of conflicting state rules, while legislative focus has centered on narrower topics like child safety, deepfakes, and nonconsensual imagery rather than comprehensive safety mandates. With midterm pressures, partisan divides over regulatory scope, and accelerating state-level activity filling the gap, the window for passage of a major federal AI safety bill by the end of 2026 appears narrow.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions