Traders see little chance of OpenAI announcing AGI before 2027 because current large language models still fall short on general reasoning, autonomous learning, and reliable performance across novel tasks, with no official claims or verified benchmarks meeting standard AGI definitions. Competitive pressure from other labs and internal safety reviews have also tempered aggressive timelines. A sudden breakthrough in scaling or novel architecture could shift sentiment, yet historical product delays and the gap between demonstrated capabilities and true artificial general intelligence keep the market-implied odds heavily weighted against an announcement in the remaining months.