Google confirmed on July 21, 2026, that pre-training for its next flagship large language model, Gemini 4, has begun as the company’s “most ambitious” run to date. This follows the Gemini 3 family rollout in late 2025 and incremental 3.x Flash updates through mid-2026, with no Gemini 4 preview, benchmarks, or API access yet available. Pre-training typically spans three to five months before post-training, safety testing, and phased rollout, placing a realistic window in late 2026 or early 2027 under competitive pressure from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. Google has signaled plans for more frequent model iterations alongside this larger base model but has issued no release commitments or quarterly targets. Traders should monitor earnings calls, developer conferences, and any internal progress leaks for signals that could shift implied probabilities on 2026 resolution dates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$202,547 交易量
2026-08-31
8 月 31 日
1%
9月15日
11%
9 月 30 日
17%
$202,547 交易量
8 月 31 日
$47,927 交易量
1%
9月15日
$16 交易量
11%
9 月 30 日
$43,392 交易量
17%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google confirmed on July 21, 2026, that pre-training for its next flagship large language model, Gemini 4, has begun as the company’s “most ambitious” run to date. This follows the Gemini 3 family rollout in late 2025 and incremental 3.x Flash updates through mid-2026, with no Gemini 4 preview, benchmarks, or API access yet available. Pre-training typically spans three to five months before post-training, safety testing, and phased rollout, placing a realistic window in late 2026 or early 2027 under competitive pressure from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. Google has signaled plans for more frequent model iterations alongside this larger base model but has issued no release commitments or quarterly targets. Traders should monitor earnings calls, developer conferences, and any internal progress leaks for signals that could shift implied probabilities on 2026 resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jul 29, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
交易量
$202,547結束日期
2026-07-31市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google confirmed on July 21, 2026, that pre-training for its next flagship large language model, Gemini 4, has begun as the company’s “most ambitious” run to date. This follows the Gemini 3 family rollout in late 2025 and incremental 3.x Flash updates through mid-2026, with no Gemini 4 preview, benchmarks, or API access yet available. Pre-training typically spans three to five months before post-training, safety testing, and phased rollout, placing a realistic window in late 2026 or early 2027 under competitive pressure from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. Google has signaled plans for more frequent model iterations alongside this larger base model but has issued no release commitments or quarterly targets. Traders should monitor earnings calls, developer conferences, and any internal progress leaks for signals that could shift implied probabilities on 2026 resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$202,547結束日期
2026-07-31市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Google confirmed on July 21, 2026, that pre-training for its next flagship large language model, Gemini 4, has begun as the company’s “most ambitious” run to date. This follows the Gemini 3 family rollout in late 2025 and incremental 3.x Flash updates through mid-2026, with no Gemini 4 preview, benchmarks, or API access yet available. Pre-training typically spans three to five months before post-training, safety testing, and phased rollout, placing a realistic window in late 2026 or early 2027 under competitive pressure from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. Google has signaled plans for more frequent model iterations alongside this larger base model but has issued no release commitments or quarterly targets. Traders should monitor earnings calls, developer conferences, and any internal progress leaks for signals that could shift implied probabilities on 2026 resolution dates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions