Google’s prolonged pause on frontier Pro releases since Gemini 3.1 Pro in February 2026, combined with repeated delays to the teased 3.5 Pro and rapid iteration on Flash variants like the September 2 Gemini 3.8 Flash, has shaped trader views that the next Pro model will land in October. DeepMind’s focus on agentic capabilities, coding benchmarks, and internal performance tuning has pushed timelines, while competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.x and Anthropic’s Claude releases adds urgency. Google executives have confirmed an ambitious Gemini 4 pre-training run, raising the possibility of skipping directly to a major version. Market-implied odds currently favor a launch by late October, with upcoming developer conferences and earnings commentary serving as potential catalysts for new signals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$1,288,629 交易量
2026-09-15
September 15
3%
September 30
16%
October 31
78%
10 月 15 日
30%
$1,288,629 交易量
September 15
$12,325 交易量
3%
September 30
$88,276 交易量
16%
October 31
$22,814 交易量
78%
10 月 15 日
$9,131 交易量
30%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s prolonged pause on frontier Pro releases since Gemini 3.1 Pro in February 2026, combined with repeated delays to the teased 3.5 Pro and rapid iteration on Flash variants like the September 2 Gemini 3.8 Flash, has shaped trader views that the next Pro model will land in October. DeepMind’s focus on agentic capabilities, coding benchmarks, and internal performance tuning has pushed timelines, while competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.x and Anthropic’s Claude releases adds urgency. Google executives have confirmed an ambitious Gemini 4 pre-training run, raising the possibility of skipping directly to a major version. Market-implied odds currently favor a launch by late October, with upcoming developer conferences and earnings commentary serving as potential catalysts for new signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Aug 17, 2026, 9:16 AM ET
交易量
$1,288,629結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 9:16 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s prolonged pause on frontier Pro releases since Gemini 3.1 Pro in February 2026, combined with repeated delays to the teased 3.5 Pro and rapid iteration on Flash variants like the September 2 Gemini 3.8 Flash, has shaped trader views that the next Pro model will land in October. DeepMind’s focus on agentic capabilities, coding benchmarks, and internal performance tuning has pushed timelines, while competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.x and Anthropic’s Claude releases adds urgency. Google executives have confirmed an ambitious Gemini 4 pre-training run, raising the possibility of skipping directly to a major version. Market-implied odds currently favor a launch by late October, with upcoming developer conferences and earnings commentary serving as potential catalysts for new signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,288,629結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 9:16 AM ETGoogle’s prolonged pause on frontier Pro releases since Gemini 3.1 Pro in February 2026, combined with repeated delays to the teased 3.5 Pro and rapid iteration on Flash variants like the September 2 Gemini 3.8 Flash, has shaped trader views that the next Pro model will land in October. DeepMind’s focus on agentic capabilities, coding benchmarks, and internal performance tuning has pushed timelines, while competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.x and Anthropic’s Claude releases adds urgency. Google executives have confirmed an ambitious Gemini 4 pre-training run, raising the possibility of skipping directly to a major version. Market-implied odds currently favor a launch by late October, with upcoming developer conferences and earnings commentary serving as potential catalysts for new signals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions