Google leads with an 87% implied probability as the second-best AI lab by end of September, reflecting its recent Gemini model updates, DeepMind research momentum, and broad integration of large language models across search and cloud platforms. Trader consensus highlights steady capability gains and enterprise adoption that have narrowed the gap with frontrunners, while lower odds for OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta stem from fewer major releases or benchmark shifts in the past 30 days. With resolution imminent, any late-September model announcements or third-party evaluations could still alter sentiment in this closely watched tech sector market.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Google 85%
Meta 7.0%
OpenAI 4.0%
Alibaba 1.9%
$108,207 交易量
$108,207 交易量

85%

Meta
7%

OpenAI
4%

Alibaba
2%

Moonshot
2%

DeepSeek
2%

Anthropic
1%

SpaceXAI
1%

Z.ai
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Xiaomi
<1%

Thinky
<1%

Amazon
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Nvidia
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Tencent
<1%

StepFun
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Google 85%
Meta 7.0%
OpenAI 4.0%
Alibaba 1.9%
$108,207 交易量
$108,207 交易量

85%

Meta
7%

OpenAI
4%

Alibaba
2%

Moonshot
2%

DeepSeek
2%

Anthropic
1%

SpaceXAI
1%

Z.ai
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Xiaomi
<1%

Thinky
<1%

Amazon
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Nvidia
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Tencent
<1%

StepFun
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Google leads with an 87% implied probability as the second-best AI lab by end of September, reflecting its recent Gemini model updates, DeepMind research momentum, and broad integration of large language models across search and cloud platforms. Trader consensus highlights steady capability gains and enterprise adoption that have narrowed the gap with frontrunners, while lower odds for OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta stem from fewer major releases or benchmark shifts in the past 30 days. With resolution imminent, any late-September model announcements or third-party evaluations could still alter sentiment in this closely watched tech sector market.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions