Recent benchmark leadership by Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra has kept the frontier tightly contested, with Chinese labs like Moonshot, DeepSeek, and ByteDance narrowing capability gaps through efficient large-scale releases and lower-cost models. Trader sentiment reflects this parity, as SpaceXAI, ByteDance, and Moonshot command the highest implied odds among named options while established players like Google, Meta, and Mistral sit lower amid slower recent updates and distribution advantages for OpenAI. Key swing factors include upcoming model iterations, compute scaling, and any regulatory moves on safety standards before November resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Moonshot 31%
Z.ai 26%
SpaceXAI 26%
小米 25%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
Moonshot
31%
Z.ai
26%
SpaceXAI
26%
小米
25%
DeepSeek
24%
MiniMax
24%
Anthropic
23%
22%
騰訊
14%
OpenAI
14%
百度
14%
亞馬遜
14%
美團
14%
微軟
13%
Nvidia
13%
字節跳動
12%
Mistral
12%
StepFun
12%
Meta
12%
阿里巴巴
12%
Thinky
11%
Moonshot 31%
Z.ai 26%
SpaceXAI 26%
小米 25%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
Moonshot
$36 交易量
31%
Z.ai
$36 交易量
26%
SpaceXAI
$36 交易量
26%
小米
$36 交易量
25%
DeepSeek
$36 交易量
24%
MiniMax
$36 交易量
24%
Anthropic
$36 交易量
23%
$36 交易量
22%
騰訊
$36 交易量
14%
OpenAI
$36 交易量
14%
百度
$36 交易量
14%
亞馬遜
$36 交易量
14%
美團
$36 交易量
14%
微軟
$36 交易量
13%
Nvidia
$36 交易量
13%
字節跳動
$36 交易量
12%
Mistral
$36 交易量
12%
StepFun
$36 交易量
12%
Meta
$36 交易量
12%
阿里巴巴
$36 交易量
12%
Thinky
$36 交易量
11%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent benchmark leadership by Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra has kept the frontier tightly contested, with Chinese labs like Moonshot, DeepSeek, and ByteDance narrowing capability gaps through efficient large-scale releases and lower-cost models. Trader sentiment reflects this parity, as SpaceXAI, ByteDance, and Moonshot command the highest implied odds among named options while established players like Google, Meta, and Mistral sit lower amid slower recent updates and distribution advantages for OpenAI. Key swing factors include upcoming model iterations, compute scaling, and any regulatory moves on safety standards before November resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
交易量
$765結束日期
2026-12-01市場開放時間
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent benchmark leadership by Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra has kept the frontier tightly contested, with Chinese labs like Moonshot, DeepSeek, and ByteDance narrowing capability gaps through efficient large-scale releases and lower-cost models. Trader sentiment reflects this parity, as SpaceXAI, ByteDance, and Moonshot command the highest implied odds among named options while established players like Google, Meta, and Mistral sit lower amid slower recent updates and distribution advantages for OpenAI. Key swing factors include upcoming model iterations, compute scaling, and any regulatory moves on safety standards before November resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$765結束日期
2026-12-01市場開放時間
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETRecent benchmark leadership by Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra has kept the frontier tightly contested, with Chinese labs like Moonshot, DeepSeek, and ByteDance narrowing capability gaps through efficient large-scale releases and lower-cost models. Trader sentiment reflects this parity, as SpaceXAI, ByteDance, and Moonshot command the highest implied odds among named options while established players like Google, Meta, and Mistral sit lower amid slower recent updates and distribution advantages for OpenAI. Key swing factors include upcoming model iterations, compute scaling, and any regulatory moves on safety standards before November resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions