Anthropic’s commanding 70.5% market-implied odds reflect its recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases that posted the highest scores on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, coupled with internal data showing Claude leading 26% of the company’s AI R&D tasks under human oversight as of August 2026. This self-reinforcing development loop, alongside a $65 billion annualized revenue run rate and enterprise preference for its coding and agentic capabilities, has solidified trader consensus around sustained frontier leadership through year-end. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra has narrowed some spending gaps on platforms like OpenRouter, yet Anthropic’s benchmark edge and upcoming model cadence before its planned IPO continue to anchor the probability distribution, with lower odds for Google, xAI, and Meta reflecting slower recent progress on comparable capability metrics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 71%
OpenAI 14%
Google 10%
Meta 3.3%
$1,374,873 交易量
$1,374,873 交易量
2026-12-31
Anthropic
71%
OpenAI
14%
10%
Meta
3%
xAI
3%
阿里巴巴
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Z.ai
1%
Moonshot
<1%
百度
<1%
字節跳動
<1%
Mistral
<1%
美團
<1%
微軟
<1%
亞馬遜
<1%
Anthropic 71%
OpenAI 14%
Google 10%
Meta 3.3%
$1,374,873 交易量
$1,374,873 交易量
2026-12-31
Anthropic
$164,684 交易量
71%
OpenAI
$132,504 交易量
14%
$88,020 交易量
10%
Meta
$85,149 交易量
3%
xAI
$112,579 交易量
3%
阿里巴巴
$88,072 交易量
2%
DeepSeek
$93,587 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$77,749 交易量
1%
Moonshot
$94,163 交易量
<1%
百度
$73,969 交易量
<1%
字節跳動
$86,243 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$74,495 交易量
<1%
美團
$63,914 交易量
<1%
微軟
$70,497 交易量
<1%
亞馬遜
$69,248 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s commanding 70.5% market-implied odds reflect its recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases that posted the highest scores on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, coupled with internal data showing Claude leading 26% of the company’s AI R&D tasks under human oversight as of August 2026. This self-reinforcing development loop, alongside a $65 billion annualized revenue run rate and enterprise preference for its coding and agentic capabilities, has solidified trader consensus around sustained frontier leadership through year-end. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra has narrowed some spending gaps on platforms like OpenRouter, yet Anthropic’s benchmark edge and upcoming model cadence before its planned IPO continue to anchor the probability distribution, with lower odds for Google, xAI, and Meta reflecting slower recent progress on comparable capability metrics.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間： Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
交易量
$1,374,873結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s commanding 70.5% market-implied odds reflect its recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases that posted the highest scores on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, coupled with internal data showing Claude leading 26% of the company’s AI R&D tasks under human oversight as of August 2026. This self-reinforcing development loop, alongside a $65 billion annualized revenue run rate and enterprise preference for its coding and agentic capabilities, has solidified trader consensus around sustained frontier leadership through year-end. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra has narrowed some spending gaps on platforms like OpenRouter, yet Anthropic’s benchmark edge and upcoming model cadence before its planned IPO continue to anchor the probability distribution, with lower odds for Google, xAI, and Meta reflecting slower recent progress on comparable capability metrics.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$1,374,873結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETAnthropic’s commanding 70.5% market-implied odds reflect its recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases that posted the highest scores on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, coupled with internal data showing Claude leading 26% of the company’s AI R&D tasks under human oversight as of August 2026. This self-reinforcing development loop, alongside a $65 billion annualized revenue run rate and enterprise preference for its coding and agentic capabilities, has solidified trader consensus around sustained frontier leadership through year-end. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra has narrowed some spending gaps on platforms like OpenRouter, yet Anthropic’s benchmark edge and upcoming model cadence before its planned IPO continue to anchor the probability distribution, with lower odds for Google, xAI, and Meta reflecting slower recent progress on comparable capability metrics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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