Anthropic holds a dominant 71.5% implied probability because its Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 models currently lead major September 2026 benchmarks in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, including top scores on composites from Artificial Analysis and BenchLM. Recent releases such as Fable 5.1 and Opus 5, combined with disclosures that Claude now leads 26% of Anthropic’s internal AI R&D, have reinforced trader consensus around sustained frontier performance through year-end. Google’s Gemini lineup and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra trail on several independent evaluations despite strong multimodal and consumer features, while lower-probability contenders like xAI and Meta lag further in verified capability metrics. Key near-term catalysts include additional model updates and benchmark refreshes that could shift positioning before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 72%
Google 12%
OpenAI 10%
xAI 3.0%
$1,326,333 交易量
$1,326,333 交易量
2026-12-31
Anthropic
72%
12%
OpenAI
10%
xAI
3%
Meta
3%
阿里巴巴
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
1%
百度
<1%
字節跳動
<1%
Mistral
<1%
美團
<1%
微軟
<1%
亞馬遜
<1%
Anthropic 72%
Google 12%
OpenAI 10%
xAI 3.0%
$1,326,333 交易量
$1,326,333 交易量
2026-12-31
Anthropic
$162,032 交易量
72%
$82,624 交易量
12%
OpenAI
$124,357 交易量
10%
xAI
$109,288 交易量
3%
Meta
$82,911 交易量
3%
阿里巴巴
$72,613 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$92,465 交易量
1%
Moonshot
$92,374 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$76,452 交易量
1%
百度
$70,987 交易量
<1%
字節跳動
$85,303 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$73,703 交易量
<1%
美團
$63,122 交易量
<1%
微軟
$69,676 交易量
<1%
亞馬遜
$68,428 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds a dominant 71.5% implied probability because its Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 models currently lead major September 2026 benchmarks in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, including top scores on composites from Artificial Analysis and BenchLM. Recent releases such as Fable 5.1 and Opus 5, combined with disclosures that Claude now leads 26% of Anthropic’s internal AI R&D, have reinforced trader consensus around sustained frontier performance through year-end. Google’s Gemini lineup and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra trail on several independent evaluations despite strong multimodal and consumer features, while lower-probability contenders like xAI and Meta lag further in verified capability metrics. Key near-term catalysts include additional model updates and benchmark refreshes that could shift positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間： Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
交易量
$1,326,333結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds a dominant 71.5% implied probability because its Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 models currently lead major September 2026 benchmarks in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, including top scores on composites from Artificial Analysis and BenchLM. Recent releases such as Fable 5.1 and Opus 5, combined with disclosures that Claude now leads 26% of Anthropic’s internal AI R&D, have reinforced trader consensus around sustained frontier performance through year-end. Google’s Gemini lineup and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra trail on several independent evaluations despite strong multimodal and consumer features, while lower-probability contenders like xAI and Meta lag further in verified capability metrics. Key near-term catalysts include additional model updates and benchmark refreshes that could shift positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$1,326,333結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETAnthropic holds a dominant 71.5% implied probability because its Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 models currently lead major September 2026 benchmarks in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, including top scores on composites from Artificial Analysis and BenchLM. Recent releases such as Fable 5.1 and Opus 5, combined with disclosures that Claude now leads 26% of Anthropic’s internal AI R&D, have reinforced trader consensus around sustained frontier performance through year-end. Google’s Gemini lineup and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra trail on several independent evaluations despite strong multimodal and consumer features, while lower-probability contenders like xAI and Meta lag further in verified capability metrics. Key near-term catalysts include additional model updates and benchmark refreshes that could shift positioning before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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