Moonshot's kimi-k3 currently tops the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard with the highest Elo rating for agentic front-end coding tasks, driving its 54% market-implied odds ahead of a tightly bunched field. Traders appear to weigh this edge against Mistral's recent Large 3 and Small 4 releases that bundle strong coding and multimodal features at lower cost, plus OpenAI's GPT-5 series updates targeting similar workflows. The many 50% and sub-45% outcomes reflect rapid iteration across labs, where open-weight models from Moonshot and Mistral compete on accessibility while closed systems emphasize benchmark-specific optimizations. Key swing factors through September include new leaderboard submissions, developer adoption metrics, and any major capability jumps in tool use or full-stack web generation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Moonshot 49%
OpenAI 47%
Mistral 38%
SpaceXAI 34%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
Moonshot
49%
OpenAI
47%
Mistral
38%
SpaceXAI
34%
DeepSeek
33%
Z.ai
33%
Thinky
33%
騰訊
33%
Poolside
33%
25%
Anthropic
24%
Meta
24%
字節跳動
24%
阿里巴巴
24%
MiniMax
24%
小米
24%
Moonshot 49%
OpenAI 47%
Mistral 38%
SpaceXAI 34%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
Moonshot
$0 交易量
49%
OpenAI
$0 交易量
47%
Mistral
$0 交易量
38%
SpaceXAI
$0 交易量
34%
DeepSeek
$0 交易量
33%
Z.ai
$0 交易量
33%
Thinky
$20 交易量
33%
騰訊
$26 交易量
33%
Poolside
$30 交易量
33%
$0 交易量
25%
Anthropic
$0 交易量
24%
Meta
$0 交易量
24%
字節跳動
$0 交易量
24%
阿里巴巴
$0 交易量
24%
MiniMax
$0 交易量
24%
小米
$0 交易量
24%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot's kimi-k3 currently tops the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard with the highest Elo rating for agentic front-end coding tasks, driving its 54% market-implied odds ahead of a tightly bunched field. Traders appear to weigh this edge against Mistral's recent Large 3 and Small 4 releases that bundle strong coding and multimodal features at lower cost, plus OpenAI's GPT-5 series updates targeting similar workflows. The many 50% and sub-45% outcomes reflect rapid iteration across labs, where open-weight models from Moonshot and Mistral compete on accessibility while closed systems emphasize benchmark-specific optimizations. Key swing factors through September include new leaderboard submissions, developer adoption metrics, and any major capability jumps in tool use or full-stack web generation.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ET
交易量
$76結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot's kimi-k3 currently tops the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard with the highest Elo rating for agentic front-end coding tasks, driving its 54% market-implied odds ahead of a tightly bunched field. Traders appear to weigh this edge against Mistral's recent Large 3 and Small 4 releases that bundle strong coding and multimodal features at lower cost, plus OpenAI's GPT-5 series updates targeting similar workflows. The many 50% and sub-45% outcomes reflect rapid iteration across labs, where open-weight models from Moonshot and Mistral compete on accessibility while closed systems emphasize benchmark-specific optimizations. Key swing factors through September include new leaderboard submissions, developer adoption metrics, and any major capability jumps in tool use or full-stack web generation.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$76結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ETMoonshot's kimi-k3 currently tops the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard with the highest Elo rating for agentic front-end coding tasks, driving its 54% market-implied odds ahead of a tightly bunched field. Traders appear to weigh this edge against Mistral's recent Large 3 and Small 4 releases that bundle strong coding and multimodal features at lower cost, plus OpenAI's GPT-5 series updates targeting similar workflows. The many 50% and sub-45% outcomes reflect rapid iteration across labs, where open-weight models from Moonshot and Mistral compete on accessibility while closed systems emphasize benchmark-specific optimizations. Key swing factors through September include new leaderboard submissions, developer adoption metrics, and any major capability jumps in tool use or full-stack web generation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions