The market reflects a closely contested race for the number two AI lab by end of November, with multiple outcomes carrying 50% implied probability as traders weigh rapid large language model progress and style control capabilities. Meta and Google hold the next-highest odds at 37.5% and 35%, supported by recent releases and ecosystem momentum, while Anthropic, DeepSeek, and others trail amid uncertainty over benchmark gains, safety features, and developer adoption. Competitive dynamics hinge on verifiable model updates, platform integrations, and regulatory signals that could shift positioning before resolution, underscoring how product timelines and capability demonstrations continue to influence skin-in-the-game consensus in this fast-moving field.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Meta 38%
Google 35%
Anthropic 14%
SpaceXAI 6.7%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
Meta
38%
35%
Anthropic
14%
SpaceXAI
7%
OpenAI
7%
Moonshot
4%
微軟
4%
騰訊
3%
MiniMax
3%
阿里巴巴
3%
百度
2%
Z.ai
6%
DeepSeek
9%
Thinky
1%
字節跳動
1%
亞馬遜
1%
Nvidia
1%
小米
1%
美團
1%
Mistral
1%
StepFun
1%
Meta 38%
Google 35%
Anthropic 14%
SpaceXAI 6.7%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
Meta
$1,112 交易量
38%
$1,963 交易量
35%
Anthropic
$640 交易量
14%
SpaceXAI
$212 交易量
7%
OpenAI
$281 交易量
7%
Moonshot
$192 交易量
4%
微軟
$192 交易量
4%
騰訊
$690 交易量
3%
MiniMax
$926 交易量
3%
阿里巴巴
$236 交易量
3%
百度
$240 交易量
2%
Z.ai
$232 交易量
6%
DeepSeek
$302 交易量
9%
Thinky
$196 交易量
1%
字節跳動
$195 交易量
1%
亞馬遜
$185 交易量
1%
Nvidia
$192 交易量
1%
小米
$192 交易量
1%
美團
$192 交易量
1%
Mistral
$192 交易量
1%
StepFun
$192 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The market reflects a closely contested race for the number two AI lab by end of November, with multiple outcomes carrying 50% implied probability as traders weigh rapid large language model progress and style control capabilities. Meta and Google hold the next-highest odds at 37.5% and 35%, supported by recent releases and ecosystem momentum, while Anthropic, DeepSeek, and others trail amid uncertainty over benchmark gains, safety features, and developer adoption. Competitive dynamics hinge on verifiable model updates, platform integrations, and regulatory signals that could shift positioning before resolution, underscoring how product timelines and capability demonstrations continue to influence skin-in-the-game consensus in this fast-moving field.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
交易量
$8,750結束日期
2026-12-01市場開放時間
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The market reflects a closely contested race for the number two AI lab by end of November, with multiple outcomes carrying 50% implied probability as traders weigh rapid large language model progress and style control capabilities. Meta and Google hold the next-highest odds at 37.5% and 35%, supported by recent releases and ecosystem momentum, while Anthropic, DeepSeek, and others trail amid uncertainty over benchmark gains, safety features, and developer adoption. Competitive dynamics hinge on verifiable model updates, platform integrations, and regulatory signals that could shift positioning before resolution, underscoring how product timelines and capability demonstrations continue to influence skin-in-the-game consensus in this fast-moving field.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$8,750結束日期
2026-12-01市場開放時間
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETThe market reflects a closely contested race for the number two AI lab by end of November, with multiple outcomes carrying 50% implied probability as traders weigh rapid large language model progress and style control capabilities. Meta and Google hold the next-highest odds at 37.5% and 35%, supported by recent releases and ecosystem momentum, while Anthropic, DeepSeek, and others trail amid uncertainty over benchmark gains, safety features, and developer adoption. Competitive dynamics hinge on verifiable model updates, platform integrations, and regulatory signals that could shift positioning before resolution, underscoring how product timelines and capability demonstrations continue to influence skin-in-the-game consensus in this fast-moving field.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions