The market for third-best AI lab by end of November reflects tight competition among frontier labs, with no dominant contender behind current leaders Anthropic and OpenAI. Recent releases such as Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 topping intelligence indexes, OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra advancing agentic benchmarks, and Google’s Gemini 3.8 series highlight rapid convergence in capabilities, while Chinese labs like Z.ai (GLM-5.3) and DeepSeek gain ground on efficiency and open models. This parity, plus ongoing updates from Meta, xAI, and others, sustains high uncertainty across outcomes. Key swing factors include November benchmark shifts on Arena or Artificial Analysis leaderboards and any major scaling or partnership announcements that could reorder perceived rankings.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於美團 29%
Meta 28%
Google 28%
StepFun 22%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
美團
29%
Meta
28%
28%
StepFun
22%
阿里巴巴
20%
Mistral
20%
DeepSeek
19%
騰訊
16%
百度
15%
Nvidia
14%
Anthropic
12%
MiniMax
12%
微軟
12%
小米
11%
Moonshot
11%
Z.ai
11%
字節跳動
10%
SpaceXAI
10%
Thinky
9%
OpenAI
8%
亞馬遜
6%
美團 29%
Meta 28%
Google 28%
StepFun 22%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
美團
$37 交易量
29%
Meta
$57 交易量
28%
$37 交易量
28%
StepFun
$37 交易量
22%
阿里巴巴
$37 交易量
20%
Mistral
$37 交易量
20%
DeepSeek
$37 交易量
19%
騰訊
$37 交易量
16%
百度
$37 交易量
15%
Nvidia
$37 交易量
14%
Anthropic
$97 交易量
12%
MiniMax
$37 交易量
12%
微軟
$37 交易量
12%
小米
$37 交易量
11%
Moonshot
$37 交易量
11%
Z.ai
$37 交易量
11%
字節跳動
$46 交易量
10%
SpaceXAI
$37 交易量
10%
Thinky
$37 交易量
9%
OpenAI
$37 交易量
8%
亞馬遜
$37 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The market for third-best AI lab by end of November reflects tight competition among frontier labs, with no dominant contender behind current leaders Anthropic and OpenAI. Recent releases such as Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 topping intelligence indexes, OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra advancing agentic benchmarks, and Google’s Gemini 3.8 series highlight rapid convergence in capabilities, while Chinese labs like Z.ai (GLM-5.3) and DeepSeek gain ground on efficiency and open models. This parity, plus ongoing updates from Meta, xAI, and others, sustains high uncertainty across outcomes. Key swing factors include November benchmark shifts on Arena or Artificial Analysis leaderboards and any major scaling or partnership announcements that could reorder perceived rankings.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ET
交易量
$873結束日期
2026-12-01市場開放時間
Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The market for third-best AI lab by end of November reflects tight competition among frontier labs, with no dominant contender behind current leaders Anthropic and OpenAI. Recent releases such as Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 topping intelligence indexes, OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra advancing agentic benchmarks, and Google’s Gemini 3.8 series highlight rapid convergence in capabilities, while Chinese labs like Z.ai (GLM-5.3) and DeepSeek gain ground on efficiency and open models. This parity, plus ongoing updates from Meta, xAI, and others, sustains high uncertainty across outcomes. Key swing factors include November benchmark shifts on Arena or Artificial Analysis leaderboards and any major scaling or partnership announcements that could reorder perceived rankings.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$873結束日期
2026-12-01市場開放時間
Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ETThe market for third-best AI lab by end of November reflects tight competition among frontier labs, with no dominant contender behind current leaders Anthropic and OpenAI. Recent releases such as Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 topping intelligence indexes, OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra advancing agentic benchmarks, and Google’s Gemini 3.8 series highlight rapid convergence in capabilities, while Chinese labs like Z.ai (GLM-5.3) and DeepSeek gain ground on efficiency and open models. This parity, plus ongoing updates from Meta, xAI, and others, sustains high uncertainty across outcomes. Key swing factors include November benchmark shifts on Arena or Artificial Analysis leaderboards and any major scaling or partnership announcements that could reorder perceived rankings.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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