Trader sentiment on the second-best AI lab by end of October reflects a tight race among frontier players, with Google holding the highest implied probability at 35% amid frequent benchmark shifts. Recent Gemini 3.1 Pro gains in reasoning tasks and agent capabilities have bolstered its position, while Anthropic's Claude models lead in coding and safety evaluations, and OpenAI maintains ecosystem strength despite lower odds. Chinese labs like Alibaba and DeepSeek add pressure through rapid iteration and closing performance gaps on U.S. models. Key differentiators include demonstrated large language model advances, talent retention, compute access, and regulatory positioning, with upcoming releases likely to swing the market-implied odds in this uncertain, high-stakes environment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Google 35%
Alibaba 16%
Meta 15%
Thinky 9.5%
最新
最新
2026-10-31
35%
Alibaba
16%
Meta
15%
Thinky
10%
Anthropic
8%
OpenAI
6%
Z.ai
6%
DeepSeek
6%
ByteDance
4%
MiniMax
4%
Xiaomi
3%
Meituan
3%
Mistral
3%
Microsoft
1%
Baidu
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Moonshot
1%
Tencent
1%
Nvidia
1%
Amazon
1%
StepFun
1%
Google 35%
Alibaba 16%
Meta 15%
Thinky 9.5%
最新
最新
2026-10-31
$2,676 交易量
35%
Alibaba
$172 交易量
16%
Meta
$173 交易量
15%
Thinky
$303 交易量
10%
Anthropic
$157 交易量
8%
OpenAI
$157 交易量
6%
Z.ai
$289 交易量
6%
DeepSeek
$374 交易量
6%
ByteDance
$184 交易量
4%
MiniMax
$251 交易量
4%
Xiaomi
$192 交易量
3%
Meituan
$106 交易量
3%
Mistral
$145 交易量
3%
Microsoft
$244 交易量
1%
Baidu
$220 交易量
1%
SpaceXAI
$84 交易量
1%
Moonshot
$99 交易量
1%
Tencent
$156 交易量
1%
Nvidia
$82 交易量
1%
Amazon
$119 交易量
1%
StepFun
$84 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader sentiment on the second-best AI lab by end of October reflects a tight race among frontier players, with Google holding the highest implied probability at 35% amid frequent benchmark shifts. Recent Gemini 3.1 Pro gains in reasoning tasks and agent capabilities have bolstered its position, while Anthropic's Claude models lead in coding and safety evaluations, and OpenAI maintains ecosystem strength despite lower odds. Chinese labs like Alibaba and DeepSeek add pressure through rapid iteration and closing performance gaps on U.S. models. Key differentiators include demonstrated large language model advances, talent retention, compute access, and regulatory positioning, with upcoming releases likely to swing the market-implied odds in this uncertain, high-stakes environment.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ET
交易量
$6,265結束日期
2026-10-31市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader sentiment on the second-best AI lab by end of October reflects a tight race among frontier players, with Google holding the highest implied probability at 35% amid frequent benchmark shifts. Recent Gemini 3.1 Pro gains in reasoning tasks and agent capabilities have bolstered its position, while Anthropic's Claude models lead in coding and safety evaluations, and OpenAI maintains ecosystem strength despite lower odds. Chinese labs like Alibaba and DeepSeek add pressure through rapid iteration and closing performance gaps on U.S. models. Key differentiators include demonstrated large language model advances, talent retention, compute access, and regulatory positioning, with upcoming releases likely to swing the market-implied odds in this uncertain, high-stakes environment.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$6,265結束日期
2026-10-31市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on the second-best AI lab by end of October reflects a tight race among frontier players, with Google holding the highest implied probability at 35% amid frequent benchmark shifts. Recent Gemini 3.1 Pro gains in reasoning tasks and agent capabilities have bolstered its position, while Anthropic's Claude models lead in coding and safety evaluations, and OpenAI maintains ecosystem strength despite lower odds. Chinese labs like Alibaba and DeepSeek add pressure through rapid iteration and closing performance gaps on U.S. models. Key differentiators include demonstrated large language model advances, talent retention, compute access, and regulatory positioning, with upcoming releases likely to swing the market-implied odds in this uncertain, high-stakes environment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions